Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 11/10, 12:00

Prediction: Las Rozas vs UD San Sebastián Reyes B

Team pages: Las Rozas · UD San Sebastián Reyes B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Las Rozas1.9

UD San Sebastián Reyes B1.06

1X2

56% 25% 20%

Las Rozas Draw UD San Sebastián Reyes B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Las Rozas 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWDLW

UD San Sebastián Reyes B 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Las Rozas 2–0 UD San Sebastián Reyes B (2 last)

Las Rozas1-0UD San Sebastián Reyes B
UD San Sebastián Reyes B1-2Las Rozas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Las Rozas 1530 · UD San Sebastián Reyes B 1471

	Las Rozas	Draw	UD San Sebastián Reyes B
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	56%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Las Rozas (rating 1530 vs 1471).
H2H favours Las Rozas: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Las Rozas	UD San Sebastián Reyes B
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	14/43/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	1.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.60 → 4.60	Bet365 4.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +8’	1.61	3.60	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Rozas 2–0–0 UD San Sebastián Reyes B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Las Rozas	1-0 HT 0-0	UD San Sebastián Reyes B
14/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	1-2 HT 0-1	Las Rozas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	4	3	1	0	5	1	10
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	4	2	2	0	9	4	8
3	CD Galapagar	4	2	2	0	9	5	8
4	Trival Valderas	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
5	Las Rozas	3	2	1	0	7	4	7
6	AD Cala Pozuelo	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
7	Union Adarve	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
8	Pozuelo Alarcon	4	1	3	0	6	5	6
9	Leganes B	4	2	0	2	8	5	6
10	Mexico FC	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
11	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	3	1	2	0	7	4	5
12	Fuenlabrada	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
13	AD Parla	5	1	2	2	7	8	5
14	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
15	Torrejon	4	1	0	3	2	5	3
16	Siello FC	4	1	0	3	5	12	3
17	Rayo Vallecano B	4	0	1	3	4	9	1
18	Real Aranjuez	4	0	1	3	4	10	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Las Rozas	UD San Sebastián Reyes B
Leganes B	3-2 W	3-2 W
Union Adarve	0-2 L	0-2 L
SAD Villaverde San Andres	5-0 W	4-0 W
Atletico Madrid C	3-5 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Las Rozas

LWLLWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
04/10	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
13/09	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
05/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-1	1	4	W
17/05	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
10/05	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-3	0	4	L
03/05	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	14	4	L
26/04	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	5-0	2	3	W
19/04	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	3-5	5	7	L

UD San Sebastián Reyes B

WDLWWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-5	3	4	L
27/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-3	1	7	L
20/09	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	–	0-3	8	10	L
13/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
06/09	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
10/05	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	–	4-0	–	–	W
03/05	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-2	11	7	L
19/04	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
12/04	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	3-2	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Las Rozas vs UD San Sebastián Reyes B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Rozas win (56%). Probabilities: Las Rozas 56%, draw 25%, UD San Sebastián Reyes B 20%.

How many goals are expected in Las Rozas vs UD San Sebastián Reyes B?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Las Rozas 1.9 · UD San Sebastián Reyes B 1.06), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Las Rozas vs UD San Sebastián Reyes B?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.