Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 11/10, 12:00
Prediction: Leganes B vs CD Galapagar
Team pages: Leganes B · CD Galapagar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Leganes B1.82
CD Galapagar1.13
1X2
Leganes B
Draw
CD Galapagar
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Leganes B
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
CD Galapagar
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leganes B
0–4–2
CD Galapagar
(6 last)
- Leganes B0-1CD Galapagar
- CD Galapagar2-2Leganes B
- Leganes B0-2CD Galapagar
- CD Galapagar1-1Leganes B
- CD Galapagar0-0Leganes B
- Leganes B0-0CD Galapagar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leganes B 1479 · CD Galapagar 1539
| Leganes B | Draw | CD Galapagar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Galapagar (rating 1479 vs 1539).
- H2H favours CD Galapagar: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leganes B | CD Galapagar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/33/33% | 38/25/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.9 | 1.3 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.7 | 5.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leganes B 0–4–2 CD Galapagar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Leganes B | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CD Galapagar |
| 05/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7 | CD Galapagar | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Leganes B |
| 09/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Leganes B | 0-2 HT 0-1 | CD Galapagar |
| 29/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 7 | CD Galapagar | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Leganes B |
| 18/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 7 | CD Galapagar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Leganes B |
| 30/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Leganes B | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CD Galapagar |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Mostoles URJC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | CD Colonia Moscardo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 8 |
| 3 | CD Galapagar | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 8 |
| 4 | Trival Valderas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Las Rozas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | AD Cala Pozuelo | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Union Adarve | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Pozuelo Alarcon | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Leganes B | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Mexico FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 11 | Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Fuenlabrada | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 13 | AD Parla | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 |
| 14 | UD San Sebastián Reyes B | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Torrejon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Siello FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 18 | Real Aranjuez | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Leganes B | CD Galapagar |
|---|---|---|
| AD Cala Pozuelo | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Rayo Vallecano B | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Las Rozas | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Real Aranjuez | 2-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leganes B
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 26/09 | AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/09 | Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7 |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
CD Galapagar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 27/09 | Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
– | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7 |
– | 5-2 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7 |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 26/04 | Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leganes B vs CD Galapagar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Leganes B win (53%). Probabilities: Leganes B 53%, draw 25%, CD Galapagar 23%.
How many goals are expected in Leganes B vs CD Galapagar?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Leganes B 1.82 · CD Galapagar 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Leganes B vs CD Galapagar?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.