Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 11/10, 12:00
Prediction: Pozuelo Alarcon vs Mexico FC
Team pages: Pozuelo Alarcon · Mexico FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Pozuelo Alarcon1.49
Mexico FC1.23
1X2
Pozuelo Alarcon
Draw
Mexico FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Pozuelo Alarcon
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Mexico FC
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pozuelo Alarcon
1–3–2
Mexico FC
(6 last)
- Mexico FC0-3Pozuelo Alarcon
- Pozuelo Alarcon1-2Mexico FC
- Pozuelo Alarcon0-0Mexico FC
- Mexico FC0-0Pozuelo Alarcon
- Mexico FC4-3Pozuelo Alarcon
- Pozuelo Alarcon0-0Mexico FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pozuelo Alarcon 1516 · Mexico FC 1461
| Pozuelo Alarcon | Draw | Mexico FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pozuelo Alarcon (rating 1516 vs 1461).
- H2H favours Mexico FC: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pozuelo Alarcon | Mexico FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.6 | 1.6 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.1 | 5.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pozuelo Alarcon 1–3–2 Mexico FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Mexico FC | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Pozuelo Alarcon |
| 07/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Pozuelo Alarcon | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Mexico FC |
| 25/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Pozuelo Alarcon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mexico FC |
| 08/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Mexico FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Pozuelo Alarcon |
| 18/03/23 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Mexico FC | 4-3 HT 2-1 | Pozuelo Alarcon |
| 20/11/22 Spain Tercera Group 7 | Pozuelo Alarcon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mexico FC |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Mostoles URJC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | CD Colonia Moscardo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 8 |
| 3 | CD Galapagar | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 8 |
| 4 | Trival Valderas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Las Rozas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | AD Cala Pozuelo | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Union Adarve | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Pozuelo Alarcon | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Leganes B | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Mexico FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 11 | Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Fuenlabrada | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 13 | AD Parla | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 |
| 14 | UD San Sebastián Reyes B | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Torrejon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Siello FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 18 | Real Aranjuez | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pozuelo Alarcon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-4 | 1-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 20/09 | Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7 |
2-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 19/04 | UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
Mexico FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 27/09 | Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 13/09 | Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 10/05 | Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7 |
1-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 18/04 | AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 11/04 | Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pozuelo Alarcon vs Mexico FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pozuelo Alarcon win (42%). Probabilities: Pozuelo Alarcon 42%, draw 28%, Mexico FC 30%.
How many goals are expected in Pozuelo Alarcon vs Mexico FC?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Pozuelo Alarcon 1.49 · Mexico FC 1.23), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Pozuelo Alarcon vs Mexico FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.