Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 06/09, 16:30

Prediction: CD Galapagar vs Pozuelo Alarcon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

CD Galapagar1.32

Pozuelo Alarcon1.22

1X2

38% 29% 33%

CD Galapagar Draw Pozuelo Alarcon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Galapagar 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDLLWW

Pozuelo Alarcon 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWDWLW

Head-to-head

CD Galapagar 1–4–1 Pozuelo Alarcon (6 last)

Pozuelo Alarcon0-0CD Galapagar
CD Galapagar2-2Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon1-1CD Galapagar
CD Galapagar2-2Pozuelo Alarcon
CD Galapagar7-1Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon2-0CD Galapagar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Galapagar 1516 · Pozuelo Alarcon 1476

	CD Galapagar	Draw	Pozuelo Alarcon
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Galapagar (rating 1516 vs 1476).
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Galapagar	Pozuelo Alarcon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	3.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.2	5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.51 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.13
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:52 +7’	2.35	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:37 +22’	2.51	3.13	2.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Galapagar 1–4–1 Pozuelo Alarcon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Galapagar
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Galapagar	2-2 HT 1-2	Pozuelo Alarcon
27/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	1-1 HT 1-1	CD Galapagar
17/12/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Galapagar	2-2 HT 1-0	Pozuelo Alarcon
16/04/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	CD Galapagar	7-1 HT 2-0	Pozuelo Alarcon
18/12/22 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Galapagar

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
2	Fuenlabrada	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
2	Mexico FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4	Torrejon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Union Adarve	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Colonia Moscardo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Galapagar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Leganes B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Mostoles URJC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Pozuelo Alarcon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Trival Valderas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	AD Parla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Rayo Vallecano B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Aranjuez	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Siello FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	AD Cala Pozuelo	1	0	0	1	1	3	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Galapagar	Pozuelo Alarcon
Las Rozas	3-1 W	0-1 L
Union Adarve	1-3 L	2-2 D
SAD Villaverde San Andres	1-1 D	0-2 L
Atletico Madrid C	3-2 W	1-2 L
CDF Tres Cantos	0-1 L	3-1 W
Siello FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
RCD Carabanchel	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: CD Galapagar (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Galapagar

WDLWLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/05	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	5-0	3	10	W
26/04	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-3	6	5	L
19/04	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
12/04	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
02/04	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-3	8	9	L
28/03	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	2	3	W
22/03	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
15/03	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
08/03	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-1	2	4	W

Pozuelo Alarcon

LLLDLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
03/05	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-3	1	3	L
25/04	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-0	5	9	W
19/04	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
12/04	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	4-1	7	6	W
01/04	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	5	11	L
28/03	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	2-2	3	8	D
22/03	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
15/03	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
08/03	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Galapagar vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Galapagar win (38%). Probabilities: CD Galapagar 38%, draw 29%, Pozuelo Alarcon 33%.

How many goals are expected in CD Galapagar vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

The model expects 2.55 goals (CD Galapagar 1.32 · Pozuelo Alarcon 1.22), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Galapagar vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.