Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 06/09, 11:30

Prediction: Trival Valderas vs Siello FC

Team pages: Siello FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Trival Valderas1.43

Siello FC0.7

1X2

54% 28% 18%

Trival Valderas Draw Siello FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Trival Valderas 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Siello FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Trival Valderas 2–0 Siello FC (2 last)

Siello FC1-2Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas1-0Siello FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trival Valderas 1545 · Siello FC 1500

	Trival Valderas	Draw	Siello FC
Our model	53%	29%	17%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trival Valderas (rating 1545 vs 1500).
H2H favours Trival Valderas: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trival Valderas	Siello FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.7	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	25/38/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.1	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.40

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.69 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.79

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:54 +10’	1.61	3.40	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +179’	1.69	3.28	4.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Trival Valderas 2–0–0 Siello FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Siello FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Trival Valderas
12/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	1-0 HT 1-0	Siello FC

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
2	Fuenlabrada	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
2	Mexico FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4	Torrejon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Union Adarve	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Colonia Moscardo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Galapagar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Leganes B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Mostoles URJC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Pozuelo Alarcon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Trival Valderas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	AD Parla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Rayo Vallecano B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Aranjuez	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Siello FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	AD Cala Pozuelo	1	0	0	1	1	3	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trival Valderas	Siello FC
RCD Carabanchel	1-0 W	3-0 W
CD Mostoles URJC	1-0 W	5-3 W
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	0-0 D	2-1 W
Racing Madrid	4-2 W	1-0 W
Las Rozas	3-2 W	2-1 W
Union Adarve	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Siello FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trival Valderas

WWWDWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
10/05	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
03/05	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
26/04	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	8	2	W
19/04	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
12/04	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/04	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
29/03	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	3-2	4-2	5	2	W
22/03	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	3-2	1	4	W
15/03	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Siello FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-0	4	7	W
03/05	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	–	5-3	–	–	W
26/04	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-1	2	7	W
19/04	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
12/04	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
02/04	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
28/03	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
22/03	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/03	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
08/03	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trival Valderas vs Siello FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Trival Valderas win (54%). Probabilities: Trival Valderas 54%, draw 28%, Siello FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Trival Valderas vs Siello FC?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Trival Valderas 1.43 · Siello FC 0.7), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Trival Valderas vs Siello FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.