Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 06/09, 11:00

Prediction: UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Union Adarve

Team pages: Union Adarve

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

UD San Sebastián Reyes B1.41

Union Adarve1.13

1X2

42% 29% 29%

UD San Sebastián Reyes B Draw Union Adarve

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

UD San Sebastián Reyes B 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWDLWW

Union Adarve 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLWWWW

Head-to-head

UD San Sebastián Reyes B 0–2 Union Adarve (2 last)

UD San Sebastián Reyes B1-2Union Adarve
Union Adarve1-0UD San Sebastián Reyes B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD San Sebastián Reyes B 1514 · Union Adarve 1549

	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	Draw	Union Adarve
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Adarve: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	Union Adarve
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.33 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:49 +12’	2.15	3.10	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +138’	2.14	2.97	3.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UD San Sebastián Reyes B 0–0–2 Union Adarve

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	1-2 HT 1-0	Union Adarve
07/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	1-0 HT 0-0	UD San Sebastián Reyes B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
2	Fuenlabrada	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
2	Mexico FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4	Torrejon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Union Adarve	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Colonia Moscardo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Galapagar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Leganes B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Mostoles URJC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Pozuelo Alarcon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Trival Valderas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	AD Parla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Rayo Vallecano B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Aranjuez	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Siello FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	AD Cala Pozuelo	1	0	0	1	1	3	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	Union Adarve
SAD Villaverde San Andres	4-0 W	3-0 W
Atletico Madrid C	1-0 W	0-3 L
Siello FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Pozuelo Alarcon	1-1 D	2-2 D
Leganes B	3-2 W	4-3 W
Trival Valderas	0-0 D	0-1 L
Torrejon	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UD San Sebastián Reyes B (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD San Sebastián Reyes B

WDLDDWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	–	4-0	–	–	W
03/05	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/04	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-2	11	7	L
19/04	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
12/04	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	3-2	9	2	W
05/04	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/03	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
22/03	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	2-3	8	6	L
14/03	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
08/03	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	2-1	3	4	W

Union Adarve

DLWDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	5-0	4	3	W
03/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
26/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
19/04	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-0	1	11	W
11/04	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-3	3	7	L
02/04	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
28/03	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
22/03	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	4-3	4	6	W
15/03	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	11	3	L
08/03	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-2	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Union Adarve?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UD San Sebastián Reyes B win (42%). Probabilities: UD San Sebastián Reyes B 42%, draw 29%, Union Adarve 29%.

How many goals are expected in UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Union Adarve?

The model expects 2.54 goals (UD San Sebastián Reyes B 1.41 · Union Adarve 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UD San Sebastián Reyes B vs Union Adarve?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.