Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 13/09, 11:30

Prediction: Torrejon vs Mexico FC

Team pages: Torrejon · Mexico FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Torrejon1.49

Mexico FC1.02

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Torrejon Draw Mexico FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Torrejon 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWWLL

Mexico FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDDLWD

Head-to-head

Torrejon 2–3–1 Mexico FC (6 last)

Torrejon3-3Mexico FC
Mexico FC1-2Torrejon
Torrejon1-1Mexico FC
Mexico FC0-1Torrejon
Torrejon1-3Mexico FC
Mexico FC2-2Torrejon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Torrejon 1537 · Mexico FC 1483

	Torrejon	Draw	Mexico FC
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torrejon (rating 1537 vs 1483).
H2H favours Torrejon: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Torrejon	Mexico FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.5	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.25

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.15 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.35
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:33 +28’	1.90	3.25	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:44 +78’	2.15	3.35	2.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Torrejon 2–3–1 Mexico FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	3-3 HT 3-1	Mexico FC
20/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Torrejon
09/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	1-1	Mexico FC
28/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Torrejon
24/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	1-3 HT 0-1	Mexico FC
05/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	2-2	Torrejon

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
2	Fuenlabrada	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
2	Mexico FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4	Torrejon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Union Adarve	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Colonia Moscardo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Galapagar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Leganes B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Mostoles URJC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Pozuelo Alarcon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Trival Valderas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	AD Parla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Rayo Vallecano B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Aranjuez	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Siello FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	AD Cala Pozuelo	1	0	0	1	1	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Torrejon	Mexico FC
AD Parla	1-0 W	2-2 D
Alcorcon B	1-0 W	1-1 D
CDF Tres Cantos	3-2 W	0-5 L
RCD Carabanchel	1-1 D	0-0 D
CD Mostoles URJC	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Torrejon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Torrejon

WDWDWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
17/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/05	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/05	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
26/04	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	3-1	3-3	3	6	D
19/04	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	1	4	W
12/04	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
05/04	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	3-2	4	8	W
29/03	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
22/03	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	3	6	W

Mexico FC

WDLWDDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
10/05	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
26/04	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-3	3-3	4	6	D
18/04	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	2-2	4	10	D
11/04	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	0	4	D
02/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	3-1	4	9	W
28/03	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-5	7	5	L
22/03	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
14/03	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Torrejon vs Mexico FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Torrejon win (47%). Probabilities: Torrejon 47%, draw 28%, Mexico FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Torrejon vs Mexico FC?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Torrejon 1.49 · Mexico FC 1.02), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Torrejon vs Mexico FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.