Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 13/09, 11:30

Prediction: AD Parla vs Trival Valderas

Team pages: Trival Valderas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

AD Parla1.32

Trival Valderas1.92

1X2

24% 26% 49%

AD Parla Draw Trival Valderas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Parla 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLLLLL

Trival Valderas 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWDWW

Head-to-head

AD Parla 1–4–1 Trival Valderas (6 last)

AD Parla2-1Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas3-0AD Parla
Trival Valderas0-0AD Parla
AD Parla1-1Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas1-1AD Parla
AD Parla1-1Trival Valderas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Parla 1443 · Trival Valderas 1534

	AD Parla	Draw	Trival Valderas
Our model	25%	24%	50%
Market	23%	28%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trival Valderas (rating 1443 vs 1534).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Parla	Trival Valderas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 3.2	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.4	2.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.20

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +44’	3.80	3.20	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:56 +65’	3.36	3.61	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Parla 1–4–1 Trival Valderas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	2-1 HT 1-0	Trival Valderas
07/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	3-0 HT 1-0	AD Parla
30/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Parla
17/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	1-1 HT 1-0	Trival Valderas
03/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	1-1 HT 1-0	AD Parla
15/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	1-1 HT 1-1	Trival Valderas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
2	Fuenlabrada	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
2	Mexico FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4	Torrejon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Union Adarve	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Colonia Moscardo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Galapagar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Leganes B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	CD Mostoles URJC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Pozuelo Alarcon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Trival Valderas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	AD Parla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Rayo Vallecano B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Aranjuez	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Siello FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	AD Cala Pozuelo	1	0	0	1	1	3	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Parla	Trival Valderas
Alcorcon B	0-4 L	2-2 D
Mexico FC	2-2 D	2-0 W
CDF Tres Cantos	3-4 L	3-1 W
RCD Carabanchel	1-3 L	1-0 W
CD Mostoles URJC	1-1 D	1-0 W
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Trival Valderas (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Parla

WDLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
06/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
10/05	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
03/05	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-3	0-5	1	10	L
26/04	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	5	L
18/04	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-2	4	10	D
12/04	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	1-4	3-4	7	5	L
05/04	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-3	4	5	L
29/03	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	7	11	D
22/03	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-2	7	6	W

Trival Valderas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-1	4	8	W
17/05	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
10/05	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
03/05	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
26/04	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	8	2	W
19/04	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
12/04	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/04	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
29/03	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	3-2	4-2	5	2	W
22/03	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	3-2	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Parla vs Trival Valderas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Trival Valderas win (49%). Probabilities: AD Parla 24%, draw 26%, Trival Valderas 49%.

How many goals are expected in AD Parla vs Trival Valderas?

The model expects 3.23 goals (AD Parla 1.32 · Trival Valderas 1.92), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Parla vs Trival Valderas?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.