Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 19/09, 19:00

Prediction: Mexico FC vs Union Adarve

Team pages: Mexico FC · Union Adarve

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Mexico FC1.23

Union Adarve1.4

1X2

32% 29% 40%

Mexico FC Draw Union Adarve

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mexico FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDDDLWDL

Union Adarve 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Mexico FC 2–2–1 Union Adarve (5 last)

Mexico FC1-0Union Adarve
Union Adarve2-2Mexico FC
Union Adarve1-1Mexico FC
Union Adarve3-4Mexico FC
Mexico FC0-1Union Adarve

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mexico FC 1481 · Union Adarve 1547

	Mexico FC	Draw	Union Adarve
Our model	32%	29%	40%
Market	32%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Adarve (rating 1481 vs 1547).
H2H favours Mexico FC: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mexico FC	Union Adarve
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.9	2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.5	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.94 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.17
2	2.63 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +1’	2.38	3.10	2.63
22:56 +5’	2.80▲	3.10	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +229’	2.90	3.12	2.27
18:34 +7’	2.94▲	3.17▲	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mexico FC 2–2–1 Union Adarve

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Adarve
05/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	2-2 HT 1-0	Mexico FC
18/10/20 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	1-1 HT 1-0	Mexico FC
01/12/19 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	3-4	Mexico FC
25/09/16 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	0-1	Union Adarve

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
2	Union Adarve	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	CD Galapagar	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
4	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
6	CD Mostoles URJC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Trival Valderas	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Leganes B	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
9	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Torrejon	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	AD Cala Pozuelo	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
12	Pozuelo Alarcon	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Mexico FC	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
14	Fuenlabrada	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
15	Rayo Vallecano B	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	AD Parla	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
17	Siello FC	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
18	Real Aranjuez	2	0	0	2	2	7	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mexico FC	Union Adarve
Leganes B	2-1 W	4-3 W
CD Galapagar	3-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mexico FC

DLWDDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
05/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
10/05	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
26/04	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-3	3-3	4	6	D
18/04	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	2-2	4	10	D
11/04	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	0	4	D
02/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	3-1	4	9	W
28/03	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-5	7	5	L
22/03	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

Union Adarve

WDWLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
06/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
10/05	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	5-0	4	3	W
03/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
26/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
19/04	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-0	1	11	W
11/04	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-3	3	7	L
02/04	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
28/03	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
22/03	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	4-3	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mexico FC vs Union Adarve?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Adarve win (40%). Probabilities: Mexico FC 32%, draw 29%, Union Adarve 40%.

How many goals are expected in Mexico FC vs Union Adarve?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Mexico FC 1.23 · Union Adarve 1.4), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mexico FC vs Union Adarve?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.