Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 20/09, 11:30

Prediction: Trival Valderas vs Pozuelo Alarcon

Team pages: Trival Valderas · Pozuelo Alarcon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Trival Valderas1.34

Pozuelo Alarcon0.83

1X2

48% 29% 23%

Trival Valderas Draw Pozuelo Alarcon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Trival Valderas 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDWWD

Pozuelo Alarcon 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWLWDD

Head-to-head

Trival Valderas 1–4–1 Pozuelo Alarcon (6 last)

Trival Valderas1-0Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon1-0Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas1-1Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon2-2Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas0-0Pozuelo Alarcon
Pozuelo Alarcon2-2Trival Valderas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trival Valderas 1532 · Pozuelo Alarcon 1489

	Trival Valderas	Draw	Pozuelo Alarcon
Our model	47%	31%	22%
Market	49%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trival Valderas (rating 1532 vs 1489).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trival Valderas	Pozuelo Alarcon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.6	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.4	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.25

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 2.01 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +13’	1.83	3.25	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:41 +32’	2.01	3.10	3.51

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Trival Valderas 1–4–1 Pozuelo Alarcon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	1-0 HT 1-0	Pozuelo Alarcon
05/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	1-0 HT 1-0	Trival Valderas
12/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	1-1 HT 0-1	Pozuelo Alarcon
21/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	2-2 HT 0-2	Trival Valderas
14/01/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	0-0 HT 0-0	Pozuelo Alarcon
11/09/22 Spain Tercera Group 7	Pozuelo Alarcon	2-2 HT 0-0	Trival Valderas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Rozas	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
2	Union Adarve	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	CD Galapagar	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
4	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
6	CD Mostoles URJC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Trival Valderas	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Leganes B	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
9	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Torrejon	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	AD Cala Pozuelo	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
12	Pozuelo Alarcon	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Mexico FC	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
14	Fuenlabrada	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
15	Rayo Vallecano B	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	AD Parla	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
17	Siello FC	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
18	Real Aranjuez	2	0	0	2	2	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trival Valderas	Pozuelo Alarcon
CDF Tres Cantos	3-1 W	3-1 W
RCD Carabanchel	1-0 W	2-3 L
CD Mostoles URJC	1-0 W	2-0 W
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	0-0 D	1-1 D
Racing Madrid	4-2 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pozuelo Alarcon (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trival Valderas

WDWWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
06/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-1	4	8	W
17/05	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
10/05	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
03/05	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
26/04	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	8	2	W
19/04	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
12/04	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/04	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
29/03	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	3-2	4-2	5	2	W

Pozuelo Alarcon

LDLWDWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
10/05	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
03/05	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-3	1	3	L
25/04	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-0	5	9	W
19/04	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
12/04	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	4-1	7	6	W
01/04	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	5	11	L
28/03	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	2-2	3	8	D
22/03	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	10	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trival Valderas vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Trival Valderas win (48%). Probabilities: Trival Valderas 48%, draw 29%, Pozuelo Alarcon 23%.

How many goals are expected in Trival Valderas vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Trival Valderas 1.34 · Pozuelo Alarcon 0.83), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Trival Valderas vs Pozuelo Alarcon?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.