Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 04/10, 11:30

Prediction: Trival Valderas vs Las Rozas

Team pages: Trival Valderas · Las Rozas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Trival Valderas1.36

Las Rozas1.18

1X2

40% 28% 31%

Trival Valderas Draw Las Rozas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Trival Valderas 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWDDW

Las Rozas 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWWWD

Head-to-head

Trival Valderas 3–2–1 Las Rozas (6 last)

Trival Valderas3-1Las Rozas
Las Rozas1-1Trival Valderas
Las Rozas2-3Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas1-2Las Rozas
Trival Valderas1-1Las Rozas
Las Rozas2-3Trival Valderas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trival Valderas 1535 · Las Rozas 1539

	Trival Valderas	Draw	Las Rozas
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Trival Valderas: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trival Valderas	Las Rozas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.6	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.4	1.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.50 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.90 → 2.80▼	Pinn 2.84

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:52 +3’	2.15	3.20	2.90
17:02 +5’	2.20▲	3.20	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:56	2.37	2.87	3.00
14:52 +135’	2.50▲	2.84▼	2.84▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Trival Valderas 3–2–1 Las Rozas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Trival Valderas	3-1 HT 1-0	Las Rozas
31/05/26 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Las Rozas	1-1 HT 0-0	Trival Valderas
22/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Las Rozas	2-3 HT 2-0	Trival Valderas
09/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	1-2 HT 0-2	Las Rozas
16/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Trival Valderas	1-1 HT 0-0	Las Rozas
03/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Las Rozas	2-3 HT 1-1	Trival Valderas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	4	3	1	0	5	1	10
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	4	2	2	0	9	4	8
3	CD Galapagar	4	2	2	0	9	5	8
4	Trival Valderas	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
5	Las Rozas	3	2	1	0	7	4	7
6	AD Cala Pozuelo	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
7	Union Adarve	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
8	Pozuelo Alarcon	4	1	3	0	6	5	6
9	Leganes B	4	2	0	2	8	5	6
10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	3	1	2	0	7	4	5
11	Fuenlabrada	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
12	AD Parla	4	1	2	1	7	7	5
13	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
14	Torrejon	4	1	0	3	2	5	3
15	Siello FC	4	1	0	3	5	12	3
16	Mexico FC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
17	Rayo Vallecano B	4	0	1	3	4	9	1
18	Real Aranjuez	4	0	1	3	4	10	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trival Valderas	Las Rozas
Pozuelo Alarcon	1-1 D	1-0 W
Siello FC	3-1 W	1-2 L
Leganes B	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trival Valderas

WWWWDWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
20/09	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
13/09	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
06/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	3-1	4	8	W
17/05	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
10/05	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
03/05	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
26/04	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	8	2	W
19/04	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
12/04	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Las Rozas

WLLWLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
13/09	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
05/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-1	1	4	W
17/05	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
10/05	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-3	0	4	L
03/05	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	14	4	L
26/04	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	5-0	2	3	W
19/04	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	3-5	5	7	L
12/04	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
01/04	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	2	11	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trival Valderas vs Las Rozas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Trival Valderas win (40%). Probabilities: Trival Valderas 40%, draw 28%, Las Rozas 31%.

How many goals are expected in Trival Valderas vs Las Rozas?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Trival Valderas 1.36 · Las Rozas 1.18), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Trival Valderas vs Las Rozas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.