Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 04/10, 11:30

Prediction: Torrejon vs Union Adarve

Team pages: Torrejon · Union Adarve

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Torrejon1.3

Union Adarve1.06

1X2

41% 29% 29%

Torrejon Draw Union Adarve

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Torrejon 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLLWLL

Union Adarve 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWDDD

Head-to-head

Torrejon 0–5–1 Union Adarve (6 last)

Torrejon1-1Union Adarve
Union Adarve2-2Torrejon
Torrejon0-0Union Adarve
Union Adarve3-2Torrejon
Torrejon0-0Union Adarve
Union Adarve1-1Torrejon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Torrejon 1498 · Union Adarve 1546

	Torrejon	Draw	Union Adarve
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Adarve (rating 1498 vs 1546).
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Torrejon	Union Adarve
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	1.8 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.48 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.26
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +11’	2.15	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:24 +91’	2.48	3.26	2.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Torrejon 0–5–1 Union Adarve

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/08/26 Spain Copa Federacion	Torrejon	1-1 HT 0-1	Union Adarve
08/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	2-2 HT 2-0	Torrejon
26/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	0-0	Union Adarve
20/08/23 Spain Copa Federacion	Union Adarve	3-2 HT 2-1	Torrejon
31/01/21 Spain Tercera Group 7	Torrejon	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Adarve
01/11/20 Spain Tercera Group 7	Union Adarve	1-1	Torrejon

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	4	3	1	0	5	1	10
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	4	2	2	0	9	4	8
3	CD Galapagar	4	2	2	0	9	5	8
4	Trival Valderas	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
5	Las Rozas	3	2	1	0	7	4	7
6	AD Cala Pozuelo	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
7	Union Adarve	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
8	Pozuelo Alarcon	4	1	3	0	6	5	6
9	Leganes B	4	2	0	2	8	5	6
10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	3	1	2	0	7	4	5
11	Fuenlabrada	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
12	AD Parla	4	1	2	1	7	7	5
13	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
14	Torrejon	4	1	0	3	2	5	3
15	Siello FC	4	1	0	3	5	12	3
16	Mexico FC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
17	Rayo Vallecano B	4	0	1	3	4	9	1
18	Real Aranjuez	4	0	1	3	4	10	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Torrejon	Union Adarve
Fuenlabrada	1-3 L	2-2 D
Mexico FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
CD Colonia Moscardo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Las Rozas	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Union Adarve (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Torrejon

DWDWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-3	5	7	L
13/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
06/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
17/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/05	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/05	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
26/04	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	3-1	3-3	3	6	D
19/04	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	1	4	W
12/04	RCD Carabanchel Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	6	5	D

Union Adarve

WLWWWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-2	1	3	D
19/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
13/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
06/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
10/05	Racing Madrid Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	5-0	4	3	W
03/05	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
26/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
19/04	SAD Villaverde San Andres Spain Tercera Group 7	3-0	3-0	1	11	W
11/04	Atletico Madrid C Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-3	3	7	L
02/04	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Torrejon vs Union Adarve?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Torrejon win (41%). Probabilities: Torrejon 41%, draw 29%, Union Adarve 29%.

How many goals are expected in Torrejon vs Union Adarve?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Torrejon 1.3 · Union Adarve 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Torrejon vs Union Adarve?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.