Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 03/10, 17:00

Prediction: Mexico FC vs AD Parla

Team pages: Mexico FC · AD Parla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Mexico FC1.74

AD Parla1.37

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Mexico FC Draw AD Parla

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Mexico FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWDLDL

AD Parla 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLDWD

Head-to-head

Mexico FC 3–1–2 AD Parla (6 last)

Mexico FC2-2AD Parla
AD Parla1-3Mexico FC
Mexico FC0-2AD Parla
AD Parla1-2Mexico FC
AD Parla0-1Mexico FC
Mexico FC2-3AD Parla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mexico FC 1484 · AD Parla 1449

	Mexico FC	Draw	AD Parla
Our model	45%	26%	29%
Market	44%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mexico FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mexico FC	AD Parla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.4 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.8 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	22/22/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.4	6.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.32
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +3’	2.05	3.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:32 +43’	2.31	3.32	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mexico FC 3–1–2 AD Parla

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	2-2 HT 0-2	AD Parla
14/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	1-3 HT 0-3	Mexico FC
15/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	0-2 HT 0-0	AD Parla
03/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	1-2 HT 0-0	Mexico FC
07/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	AD Parla	0-1 HT 0-0	Mexico FC
19/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	2-3	AD Parla

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	4	3	1	0	5	1	10
2	CD Colonia Moscardo	4	2	2	0	9	4	8
3	CD Galapagar	4	2	2	0	9	5	8
4	Trival Valderas	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
5	Las Rozas	3	2	1	0	7	4	7
6	AD Cala Pozuelo	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
7	Union Adarve	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
8	Pozuelo Alarcon	4	1	3	0	6	5	6
9	Leganes B	4	2	0	2	8	5	6
10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	3	1	2	0	7	4	5
11	Fuenlabrada	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
12	AD Parla	4	1	2	1	7	7	5
13	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
14	Torrejon	4	1	0	3	2	5	3
15	Siello FC	4	1	0	3	5	12	3
16	Mexico FC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
17	Rayo Vallecano B	4	0	1	3	4	9	1
18	Real Aranjuez	4	0	1	3	4	10	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mexico FC	AD Parla
Torrejon	0-1 L	0-1 L
Trival Valderas	0-2 L	0-0 D
Alcorcon B	1-1 D	0-4 L
CD Galapagar	3-1 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mexico FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mexico FC

WDDDLWDLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-3	9	3	L
19/09	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
13/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
05/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
10/05	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
26/04	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-3	3-3	4	6	D
18/04	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	2-2	4	10	D
11/04	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	0	4	D
02/04	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	3-1	4	9	W

AD Parla

LDLLLLLDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	2-2	0	8	D
20/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	–	3-0	2	10	W
13/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
06/09	Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
06/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-5	13	3	L
10/05	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
03/05	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	0-3	0-5	1	10	L
26/04	Alcorcon B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	5	L
18/04	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-2	4	10	D
12/04	CDF Tres Cantos Spain Tercera Group 7	1-4	3-4	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mexico FC vs AD Parla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mexico FC win (44%). Probabilities: Mexico FC 44%, draw 27%, AD Parla 29%.

How many goals are expected in Mexico FC vs AD Parla?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Mexico FC 1.74 · AD Parla 1.37), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mexico FC vs AD Parla?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.