Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 04/09, 00:00
Prediction: Estudiantes Merida vs UCV
Team pages: Estudiantes Merida · UCV
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Estudiantes Merida1.3
UCV1.27
1X2
Estudiantes Merida
Draw
UCV
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Estudiantes Merida
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
UCV
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estudiantes Merida
1–2–3
UCV
(6 last)
- UCV1-1Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida0-0UCV
- UCV2-1Estudiantes Merida
- UCV3-1Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida0-1UCV
- Estudiantes Merida2-0UCV
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estudiantes Merida 1503 · UCV 1447
| Estudiantes Merida | Draw | UCV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Estudiantes Merida (rating 1503 vs 1447).
- H2H favours UCV: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estudiantes Merida | UCV | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5 | 2.4 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 1.2 | 6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes Merida 1–2–3 UCV
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 24/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UCV |
| 15/02/25 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 14/09/24 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 19/03/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 0-1 HT 0-0 | UCV |
| 23/07/23 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 2-0 HT 1-0 | UCV |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Metropolitanos FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Carabobo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Trujillanos | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Zamora | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | UCV | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| 11 | Caracas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Monagas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 13 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
| 14 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estudiantes Merida | UCV |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Guaira | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 0-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Zamora | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Caracas | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Metropolitanos FC | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Estudiantes Merida (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estudiantes Merida
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 10/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 06/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 04/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 14/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
UCV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 22/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 24/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 13/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estudiantes Merida vs UCV?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Estudiantes Merida win (36%). Probabilities: Estudiantes Merida 36%, draw 29%, UCV 35%.
How many goals are expected in Estudiantes Merida vs UCV?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Estudiantes Merida 1.3 · UCV 1.27), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes Merida vs UCV?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.