Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 19/09, 21:30

Prediction: Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Monagas

Team pages: Deportivo Rayo Zuliano · Monagas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano1.43

Monagas1.54

1X2

34% 28% 39%

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Draw Monagas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLDW

Monagas 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLWLWW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 2–4 Monagas (6 last)

Monagas3-0Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano3-1Monagas
Monagas3-2Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano1-2Monagas
Monagas2-1Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
Monagas1-3Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 1500 · Monagas 1538

	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	Draw	Monagas
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Monagas: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	Monagas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 2.9	1.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.7	5.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.15 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.28
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:04 +22’	2.70	3.10	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:30 +57’	3.02	3.24	2.21
22:43 +28’	3.15▲	3.28▲	2.13▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 2–0–4 Monagas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	3-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
20/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	3-1 HT 1-0	Monagas
11/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	3-2 HT 1-1	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
04/09/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	1-2 HT 1-1	Monagas
17/03/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	2-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
03/07/23 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-3 HT 1-1	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	10	8	1	1	21	8	25
2	Deportivo Tachira	10	6	2	2	20	12	20
3	Carabobo	10	5	2	3	11	7	17
4	Portuguesa	10	4	5	1	13	10	17
5	Deportivo La Guaira	10	5	1	4	19	12	16
6	Academia Puerto Cabello	10	4	4	2	13	8	16
7	Estudiantes Merida	10	4	3	3	11	11	15
8	UCV	10	4	2	4	11	10	14
9	Monagas	10	4	1	5	11	12	13
10	Caracas	10	2	4	4	8	13	10
11	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	10	3	1	6	16	22	10
12	Trujillanos	10	3	1	6	11	17	10
13	Zamora	10	2	2	6	9	18	8
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	10	1	1	8	5	19	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	Monagas
Trujillanos	4-2 W	1-3 L
Portuguesa	1-1 D	0-0 D
Deportivo Tachira	1-3 L	2-3 L
Carabobo	4-3 W	1-0 W
UCV	1-4 L	1-2 L
Deportivo La Guaira	1-4 L	1-2 L
Academia Anzoategui FC	0-1 L	3-1 W
Zamora	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Monagas (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

LLWLLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	3-1	4-2	2	5	W
13/09	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
06/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
03/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	4-3	4	8	W
01/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-4	4	10	L
22/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-4	0	12	L
16/08	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	1	7	L
10/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-0	7	9	W
06/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
02/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	6	1	L

Monagas

LLWLDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
13/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
06/09	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
03/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	1	6	W
30/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
23/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
16/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-3	4	7	L
08/08	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
05/08	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
01/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Monagas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Monagas win (39%). Probabilities: Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 34%, draw 28%, Monagas 39%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Monagas?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 1.43 · Monagas 1.54), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Monagas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.