Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 30/08, 22:30
Prediction: Trujillanos vs Monagas
Team pages: Trujillanos · Monagas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Trujillanos1.11
Monagas1.18
1X2
Trujillanos
Draw
Monagas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Trujillanos
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Monagas
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Trujillanos
2–1–3
Monagas
(6 last)
- Monagas3-1Trujillanos
- Trujillanos0-1Monagas
- Trujillanos3-2Monagas
- Monagas2-1Trujillanos
- Monagas1-1Trujillanos
- Trujillanos1-0Monagas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Trujillanos 1415 · Monagas 1525
| Trujillanos | Draw | Monagas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monagas (rating 1415 vs 1525).
- H2H favours Monagas: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Trujillanos | Monagas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.8 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.1 | 0.9 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.4 | 4.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Trujillanos 2–1–3 Monagas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Trujillanos |
| 07/07/24 Venezuela Cup | Trujillanos | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Monagas |
| 07/09/19 Venezuela Primera Division | Trujillanos | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Monagas |
| 27/03/19 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Trujillanos |
| 02/09/18 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Trujillanos |
| 11/03/18 Venezuela Primera Division | Trujillanos | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Monagas |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo La Guaira | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Metropolitanos FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Carabobo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Zamora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| 9 | Caracas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 10 | Monagas | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 11 | Trujillanos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 13 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| 14 | UCV | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Trujillanos | Monagas |
|---|---|---|
| Portuguesa | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Tachira | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Carabobo | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| UCV | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Estudiantes Merida | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Zamora | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 8 L | 2 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Monagas (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Trujillanos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 04/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 22/04 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 22/03 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
Monagas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 05/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/04 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 23/03 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Trujillanos vs Monagas?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Monagas win (36%). Probabilities: Trujillanos 33%, draw 30%, Monagas 36%.
How many goals are expected in Trujillanos vs Monagas?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Trujillanos 1.11 · Monagas 1.18), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Trujillanos vs Monagas?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.