Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 04/09, 01:00
Prediction: Academia Puerto Cabello vs Deportivo La Guaira
Team pages: Academia Puerto Cabello · Deportivo La Guaira
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Academia Puerto Cabello1.34
Deportivo La Guaira1.01
1X2
Academia Puerto Cabello
Draw
Deportivo La Guaira
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Academia Puerto Cabello
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Deportivo La Guaira
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Academia Puerto Cabello
3–3–0
Deportivo La Guaira
(6 last)
- Deportivo La Guaira0-2Academia Puerto Cabello
- Academia Puerto Cabello1-1Deportivo La Guaira
- Deportivo La Guaira0-0Academia Puerto Cabello
- Deportivo La Guaira1-2Academia Puerto Cabello
- Deportivo La Guaira0-0Academia Puerto Cabello
- Academia Puerto Cabello3-1Deportivo La Guaira
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Academia Puerto Cabello 1570 · Deportivo La Guaira 1497
| Academia Puerto Cabello | Draw | Deportivo La Guaira | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Market | 43% | 31% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Academia Puerto Cabello (rating 1570 vs 1497).
- H2H favours Academia Puerto Cabello: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Academia Puerto Cabello | Deportivo La Guaira | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.8 | 1.6 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.2 | 6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Puerto Cabello 3–3–0 Deportivo La Guaira
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Academia Puerto Cabello |
| 03/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 14/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Academia Puerto Cabello |
| 20/01/26 America Friendlies | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Academia Puerto Cabello |
| 09/11/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Academia Puerto Cabello |
| 17/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Academia Puerto Cabello | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Metropolitanos FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Carabobo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Trujillanos | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Zamora | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | UCV | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| 11 | Caracas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Monagas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 13 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
| 14 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Academia Puerto Cabello | Deportivo La Guaira |
|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes Merida | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Zamora | 1-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Caracas | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Metropolitanos FC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| UCV | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Portuguesa | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Academia Puerto Cabello
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/06 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
Deportivo La Guaira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 0 | 12 | W |
| 17/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
4-0 | 6-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 11/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 16/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 13/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Deportivo La Guaira?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Academia Puerto Cabello win (43%). Probabilities: Academia Puerto Cabello 43%, draw 31%, Deportivo La Guaira 27%.
How many goals are expected in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Academia Puerto Cabello 1.34 · Deportivo La Guaira 1.01), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.