Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 03/09, 22:00

Prediction: Academia Anzoategui FC vs Monagas

Team pages: Academia Anzoategui FC · Monagas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Academia Anzoategui FC1.45

Monagas1.37

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Academia Anzoategui FC Draw Monagas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Academia Anzoategui FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWLLDL

Monagas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLWLDL

Head-to-head

Academia Anzoategui FC 1–1–1 Monagas (3 last)

Monagas1-0Academia Anzoategui FC
Academia Anzoategui FC2-2Monagas
Monagas2-3Academia Anzoategui FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia Anzoategui FC 1461 · Monagas 1508

	Academia Anzoategui FC	Draw	Monagas
Our model	38%	28%	35%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monagas (rating 1461 vs 1508).
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia Anzoategui FC	Monagas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.7	1 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.4	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.29 ★
2	3.20 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +7’	2.10	3.10	3.20
20:35 +5’	2.45▲	3.10	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:38 +2’	2.39	3.29	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Anzoategui FC 1–1–1 Monagas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-0 HT 0-0	Academia Anzoategui FC
05/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Anzoategui FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Monagas
26/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	2-3 HT 1-1	Academia Anzoategui FC

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Academia Puerto Cabello	6	4	1	1	11	4	13
2	Deportivo Tachira	6	4	1	1	11	6	13
3	Metropolitanos FC	6	4	1	1	11	7	13
4	Deportivo La Guaira	6	4	0	2	16	8	12
5	Portuguesa	6	3	2	1	8	6	11
6	Estudiantes Merida	6	3	2	1	7	7	11
7	Carabobo	6	2	2	2	4	3	8
8	Trujillanos	6	2	1	3	6	7	7
9	Zamora	6	2	1	3	5	9	7
10	UCV	6	2	0	4	7	9	6
11	Caracas	6	1	3	2	6	8	6
12	Monagas	6	1	1	4	6	10	4
13	Academia Anzoategui FC	6	1	1	4	4	11	4
14	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	6	1	0	5	6	13	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia Anzoategui FC	Monagas
Academia Puerto Cabello	0-3 L	1-1 D
Trujillanos	0-0 D	1-3 L
Estudiantes Merida	0-1 L	2-3 L
Portuguesa	3-4 L	0-0 D
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	1-0 W	3-0 W
Zamora	1-1 D	1-2 L
Carabobo	3-6 L	1-0 W
UCV	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Monagas (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Academia Anzoategui FC

LLWLDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
21/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
15/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	0	6	L
09/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-4	2	9	L
06/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
25/04	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
21/04	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-6	1	6	L
13/04	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
03/04	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-3	7	8	L
24/03	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	2	4	L

Monagas

LWLDLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
23/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
16/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-3	4	7	L
08/08	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
05/08	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
01/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
25/04	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
19/04	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
12/04	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
04/04	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia Anzoategui FC vs Monagas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Academia Anzoategui FC win (37%). Probabilities: Academia Anzoategui FC 37%, draw 29%, Monagas 34%.

How many goals are expected in Academia Anzoategui FC vs Monagas?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Academia Anzoategui FC 1.45 · Monagas 1.37), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia Anzoategui FC vs Monagas?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.