Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 10/10, 23:00

Prediction: Portuguesa vs Deportivo La Guaira

Team pages: Portuguesa · Deportivo La Guaira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Portuguesa1.26

Deportivo La Guaira1.16

1X2

37% 30% 33%

Portuguesa Draw Deportivo La Guaira

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Portuguesa 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDDDDWL

Deportivo La Guaira 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDWLLL

Head-to-head

Portuguesa 0–3–3 Deportivo La Guaira (6 last)

Portuguesa0-2Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira1-1Portuguesa
Deportivo La Guaira0-0Portuguesa
Deportivo La Guaira3-1Portuguesa
Deportivo La Guaira1-1Portuguesa
Portuguesa1-2Deportivo La Guaira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portuguesa 1505 · Deportivo La Guaira 1492

	Portuguesa	Draw	Deportivo La Guaira
Our model	37%	30%	33%
Market	37%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo La Guaira: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portuguesa	Deportivo La Guaira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	0.8 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.1	5.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:10 +2’	2.40	3.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portuguesa 0–3–3 Deportivo La Guaira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	0-2 HT 0-2	Deportivo La Guaira
09/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	1-1 HT 0-1	Portuguesa
21/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	0-0 HT 0-0	Portuguesa
31/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	3-1 HT 0-1	Portuguesa
09/06/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	1-1 HT 1-0	Portuguesa
04/05/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo La Guaira

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	11	9	1	1	24	9	28
2	Deportivo Tachira	11	7	2	2	24	14	23
3	Academia Puerto Cabello	11	5	4	2	15	9	19
4	Carabobo	11	5	3	3	12	8	18
5	Portuguesa	11	4	5	2	14	12	17
6	Deportivo La Guaira	11	5	1	5	21	16	16
7	Estudiantes Merida	11	4	4	3	12	12	16
8	UCV	11	4	3	4	12	11	15
9	Monagas	11	4	2	5	12	13	14
10	Caracas	11	2	5	4	9	14	11
11	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	11	3	2	6	17	23	11
12	Trujillanos	11	3	2	6	12	18	11
13	Zamora	11	2	2	7	10	21	8
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	11	1	2	8	6	20	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portuguesa	Deportivo La Guaira
Academia Puerto Cabello	1-2 L	1-1 D
Estudiantes Merida	2-1 W	1-2 L
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	1-1 D	4-1 W
Zamora	1-1 D	6-1 W
Caracas	1-1 D	2-1 W
Metropolitanos FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Academia Anzoategui FC	4-3 W	2-0 W
Deportivo Tachira	0-1 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo La Guaira (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portuguesa

LWWDDDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
16/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-1	1	10	W
13/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
06/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
03/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
31/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
09/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	4-3	7	9	W
05/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	3	4	L

Deportivo La Guaira

LWWWLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-3	2-4	2	6	L
16/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
12/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
07/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
04/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
31/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
22/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	4-1	0	12	W
17/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	4-0	6-1	–	–	W
11/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	1	7	W
06/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	0	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portuguesa vs Deportivo La Guaira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portuguesa win (37%). Probabilities: Portuguesa 37%, draw 30%, Deportivo La Guaira 33%.

How many goals are expected in Portuguesa vs Deportivo La Guaira?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Portuguesa 1.26 · Deportivo La Guaira 1.16), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Portuguesa vs Deportivo La Guaira?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.