Football · Spain Tercera Group 5 · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: CF Montanesa vs UE Vilassar de Mar

Team pages: CF Montanesa · UE Vilassar de Mar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

CF Montanesa1.37

UE Vilassar de Mar1.02

1X2

44% 29% 27%

CF Montanesa Draw UE Vilassar de Mar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CF Montanesa 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWLLWL

UE Vilassar de Mar 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLLLDW

Head-to-head

CF Montanesa 3–2–1 UE Vilassar de Mar (6 last)

UE Vilassar de Mar0-1CF Montanesa
CF Montanesa2-2UE Vilassar de Mar
CF Montanesa4-0UE Vilassar de Mar
UE Vilassar de Mar0-0CF Montanesa
UE Vilassar de Mar2-1CF Montanesa
CF Montanesa1-0UE Vilassar de Mar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Montanesa 1494 · UE Vilassar de Mar 1460

	CF Montanesa	Draw	UE Vilassar de Mar
Our model	43%	30%	27%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CF Montanesa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Montanesa	UE Vilassar de Mar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/22/33%	17/17/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.07
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25
2	3.50 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.41 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:24 +20’	1.91	3.30	3.50
03:50 +14’	2.00▲	3.25▼	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +205’	1.77	3.33	4.13
21:20 +13’	2.09▲	3.04▼	3.37▼
03:14 +51’	2.07▼	3.05▲	3.41▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Montanesa 3–2–1 UE Vilassar de Mar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Vilassar de Mar	0-1 HT 0-1	CF Montanesa
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	CF Montanesa	2-2 HT 2-0	UE Vilassar de Mar
10/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	CF Montanesa	4-0 HT 1-0	UE Vilassar de Mar
12/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Vilassar de Mar	0-0 HT 0-0	CF Montanesa
17/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Vilassar de Mar	2-1 HT 1-0	CF Montanesa
29/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 5	CF Montanesa	1-0 HT 0-0	UE Vilassar de Mar

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CE L'Hospitalet	7	3	4	0	11	7	13
2	Vilanova Geltru	7	3	4	0	9	5	13
3	CF Montanesa	7	4	0	3	9	5	12
4	FE Grama	7	3	2	2	11	4	11
5	Badalona	7	3	2	2	12	6	11
6	Pobla Mafumet	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
7	Atletic Lleida	7	2	3	2	9	10	9
8	UE San Juan Montcada	7	3	0	4	8	13	9
9	Cerdanyola del Valles FC	7	2	3	2	7	8	9
10	FC Martinenc	7	2	3	2	13	16	9
11	UE Tona	7	3	0	4	6	9	9
12	CP San Cristobal	7	2	2	3	6	14	8
13	FC L'Escala	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
14	Peralada	7	1	5	1	9	7	8
15	CFJ Mollerussa	7	2	2	3	6	7	8
16	CE Europa B	7	2	2	3	10	8	8
17	UE Cornella	7	1	4	2	8	9	7
18	UE Vilassar de Mar	7	2	1	4	9	15	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Montanesa	UE Vilassar de Mar
FC L'Escala	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Martinenc	2-3 L	4-0 W
CE Europa B	0-1 L	1-6 L
FE Grama	1-0 W	0-3 L
Badalona	1-0 W	0-2 L
UE San Juan Montcada	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CF Montanesa (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CF Montanesa

LLLWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Cerdanyola del Valles FC Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
14/10	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
11/10	FC Martinenc Spain Tercera Group 5	1-2	2-3	5	3	L
27/09	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
20/09	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Badalona Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/09	UE San Juan Montcada Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	3-0	4	8	W
10/05	Peralada Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-5	–	–	L
03/05	UE Vic Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
25/04	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-1	5	7	L

UE Vilassar de Mar

DWLWLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Martinenc Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	4-0	1	9	W
10/10	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	1-3	1-6	5	3	L
27/09	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-3	4	8	L
20/09	Badalona Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	0-2	5	7	L
12/09	UE San Juan Montcada Spain Tercera Group 5	1-1	1-2	1	7	L
05/09	Pobla Mafumet Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
03/05	UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5	–	3-1	–	–	W
26/04	Lleida Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Montanesa vs UE Vilassar de Mar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CF Montanesa win (44%). Probabilities: CF Montanesa 44%, draw 29%, UE Vilassar de Mar 27%.

How many goals are expected in CF Montanesa vs UE Vilassar de Mar?

The model expects 2.38 goals (CF Montanesa 1.37 · UE Vilassar de Mar 1.02), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Montanesa vs UE Vilassar de Mar?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.