Football · Spain Tercera Group 5 · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: Vilanova Geltru vs FC L'Escala

Team pages: Vilanova Geltru · FC L'Escala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Vilanova Geltru1.32

FC L'Escala0.87

1X2

47% 29% 24%

Vilanova Geltru Draw FC L'Escala

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vilanova Geltru 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWDDWL

FC L'Escala 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWDLDD

Head-to-head

Vilanova Geltru 1–1–0 FC L'Escala (2 last)

Vilanova Geltru2-1FC L'Escala
FC L'Escala0-0Vilanova Geltru

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vilanova Geltru 1531 · FC L'Escala 1463

	Vilanova Geltru	Draw	FC L'Escala
Our model	46%	31%	23%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vilanova Geltru (rating 1531 vs 1463).
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vilanova Geltru	FC L'Escala
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/67/11%	0/43/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.90
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.70 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
13:39 +3’	1.85	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +43’	1.90	3.30	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vilanova Geltru 1–1–0 FC L'Escala

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 5	Vilanova Geltru	2-1	FC L'Escala
20/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	FC L'Escala	0-0	Vilanova Geltru

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CE L'Hospitalet	8	3	5	0	13	9	14
2	Vilanova Geltru	8	3	4	1	10	9	13
3	CF Montanesa	8	4	1	3	11	7	13
4	Pobla Mafumet	8	4	1	3	12	10	13
5	FC Martinenc	8	3	3	2	18	17	12
6	Cerdanyola del Valles FC	8	3	3	2	8	8	12
7	Atletic Lleida	8	3	3	2	10	10	12
8	FE Grama	8	3	2	3	11	5	11
9	CE Europa B	8	3	2	3	14	9	11
10	Badalona	8	3	2	3	13	10	11
11	UE San Juan Montcada	8	3	1	4	10	15	10
12	UE Tona	8	3	1	4	6	9	10
13	UE Cornella	8	2	4	2	12	10	10
14	FC L'Escala	8	2	3	3	9	10	9
15	Peralada	8	1	5	2	9	8	8
16	CFJ Mollerussa	8	2	2	4	7	9	8
17	CP San Cristobal	8	2	2	4	7	19	8
18	UE Vilassar de Mar	8	2	2	4	11	17	8

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vilanova Geltru	FC L'Escala
CE Europa B	1-4 L	2-0 W
FE Grama	0-0 D	1-2 L
Lleida	2-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC L'Escala (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vilanova Geltru

WLDWDWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	1-1	1-4	5	7	L
21/10	UE San Juan Montcada Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
17/10	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
11/10	Badalona Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/09	Pobla Mafumet Spain Tercera Group 5	2-1	3-2	5	9	W
19/09	Peralada Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
13/09	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
17/05	UE Cornella Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
10/05	Lleida Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	2-1	9	7	W

FC L'Escala

WLLWLWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/10	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
14/10	CF Montanesa Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
10/10	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	–	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	FC Martinenc Spain Tercera Group 5	1-2	3-2	8	7	W
20/09	Cerdanyola del Valles FC Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
13/09	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
05/09	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
09/05	UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
03/05	Lleida Spain Tercera Group 5	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vilanova Geltru vs FC L'Escala?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vilanova Geltru win (47%). Probabilities: Vilanova Geltru 47%, draw 29%, FC L'Escala 24%.

How many goals are expected in Vilanova Geltru vs FC L'Escala?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Vilanova Geltru 1.32 · FC L'Escala 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vilanova Geltru vs FC L'Escala?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.