Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 17/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Gagra vs FC Spaeri

Team pages: FC Gagra · FC Spaeri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

FC Gagra1.31

FC Spaeri1.35

1X2

35% 28% 37%

FC Gagra Draw FC Spaeri

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gagra 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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FC Spaeri 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Gagra 1–1–4 FC Spaeri (6 last)

FC Spaeri3-0FC Gagra
FC Gagra0-3FC Spaeri
FC Spaeri1-1FC Gagra
FC Spaeri2-0FC Gagra
FC Gagra2-0FC Spaeri
FC Spaeri3-2FC Gagra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gagra 1538 · FC Spaeri 1503

	FC Gagra	Draw	FC Spaeri
Our model	35%	29%	37%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Spaeri: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gagra	FC Spaeri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.8	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:50 +2’	2.55	3.25	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gagra 1–1–4 FC Spaeri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Spaeri	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Gagra
11/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Spaeri
05/11/24 Georgia Cup	FC Spaeri	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Gagra
12/12/22 Georgia Play-Offs	FC Spaeri	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Gagra
08/12/22 Georgia Play-Offs	FC Gagra	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Spaeri
21/01/19 Europe Friendlies	FC Spaeri	3-2 HT 3-0	FC Gagra

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	21	11	5	5	26	18	38
2	Dinamo Tbilisi	21	9	7	5	33	25	34
3	FC Iberia 1999	20	10	4	6	30	22	34
4	Torpedo Kutaisi	21	8	6	7	34	23	30
5	Dinamo Batumi	20	7	7	6	30	32	28
6	Samgurali	20	8	4	8	27	33	28
7	Dila Gori	19	8	2	9	21	19	26
8	FC Gagra	20	5	8	7	20	26	23
9	FC Spaeri	20	5	7	8	26	27	22
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	20	1	8	11	14	36	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gagra	FC Spaeri
Dinamo Batumi	2-2 D	3-3 D
Samgurali	0-0 D	0-1 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-1 D	2-1 W
Dinamo Tbilisi	2-1 W	1-2 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	2-1 W	0-0 D
Dila Gori	2-0 W	1-3 L
FC Iberia 1999	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Rustavi	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Gagra (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Gagra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	2-2	5	1	D
02/08	FC Gareji Georgia Cup	3-1	4-1	3	2	W
27/07	FC Samtskhe Georgia Cup	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
24/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
18/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
28/05	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	2-1	1	4	W
24/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
20/05	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
16/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	0	D

FC Spaeri

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
01/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Cup	1-1	1-1	4	11	D
25/07	Dinamo Tbilisi II Georgia Cup	2-0	5-1	2	2	W
20/07	Samgurali Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
22/06	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
16/06	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
12/06	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
29/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
25/05	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
21/05	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	3-3	8	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gagra vs FC Spaeri?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Spaeri win (37%). Probabilities: FC Gagra 35%, draw 28%, FC Spaeri 37%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gagra vs FC Spaeri?

The model expects 2.66 goals (FC Gagra 1.31 · FC Spaeri 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gagra vs FC Spaeri?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.