Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 16/08, 19:00

Prediction: Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi

Team pages: Samgurali · Dinamo Batumi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Samgurali1.63

Dinamo Batumi1.41

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Samgurali Draw Dinamo Batumi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Samgurali 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDWDDW

Dinamo Batumi 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Samgurali 3–1–2 Dinamo Batumi (6 last)

Dinamo Batumi3-1Samgurali
Samgurali1-1Dinamo Batumi
Samgurali4-0Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi1-2Samgurali
Samgurali3-0Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi2-0Samgurali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Samgurali 1546 · Dinamo Batumi 1519

	Samgurali	Draw	Dinamo Batumi
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Samgurali: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Samgurali	Dinamo Batumi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.58 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.20 → 2.80▼	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:10 +10’	1.95	3.40	3.20
04:26 +4’	2.15▲	3.40	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:58 +1’	2.19	3.24	3.07
15:08 +2’	2.58▲	3.30▲	2.49▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Samgurali 3–1–2 Dinamo Batumi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Batumi	3-1 HT 2-0	Samgurali
12/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	1-1 HT 0-1	Dinamo Batumi
30/11/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	4-0 HT 2-0	Dinamo Batumi
28/09/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Batumi	1-2 HT 0-1	Samgurali
25/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	3-0 HT 2-0	Dinamo Batumi
14/04/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Batumi	2-0 HT 1-0	Samgurali

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	21	11	5	5	26	18	38
2	Dinamo Tbilisi	21	9	7	5	33	25	34
3	FC Iberia 1999	20	10	4	6	30	22	34
4	Torpedo Kutaisi	21	8	6	7	34	23	30
5	Dinamo Batumi	20	7	7	6	30	32	28
6	Samgurali	20	8	4	8	27	33	28
7	Dila Gori	19	8	2	9	21	19	26
8	FC Gagra	20	5	8	7	20	26	23
9	FC Spaeri	20	5	7	8	26	27	22
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	20	1	8	11	14	36	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Samgurali	Dinamo Batumi
FC Gagra	0-0 D	2-2 D
Dinamo Tbilisi	3-5 L	1-2 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	2-1 W	3-2 W
Dila Gori	3-2 W	3-2 W
FC Iberia 1999	3-2 W	0-1 L
FC Rustavi	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Batumi (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Samgurali

LWWWLDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
01/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Cup	0-0	0-0	7	9	D
26/07	Wit Georgia Georgia Cup	0-1	1-1	13	1	D
20/07	FC Spaeri Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/06	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
18/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	3-5	8	3	L
13/06	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	6	8	W
29/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	3-2	1	3	W
25/05	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	3-2	3	9	W
21/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L

Dinamo Batumi

WLWWLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	2-2	6	1	D
02/08	FC Telavi Georgia Cup	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
25/07	FC Orbi Georgia Cup	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
16/07	Amedspor Club Friendly List	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
15/07	Caykur Rizespor Club Friendly List	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
23/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
17/06	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	3-2	3	3	W
12/06	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	3-2	4	2	W
29/05	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
25/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	11	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Samgurali win (42%). Probabilities: Samgurali 42%, draw 26%, Dinamo Batumi 32%.

How many goals are expected in Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Samgurali 1.63 · Dinamo Batumi 1.41), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.