Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 22/08, 19:00

Prediction: FC Rustavi vs FC Gagra

Team pages: FC Rustavi · FC Gagra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

FC Rustavi1.49

FC Gagra0.9

1X2

51% 27% 22%

FC Rustavi Draw FC Gagra

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Rustavi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Gagra 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Rustavi 0–2–4 FC Gagra (6 last)

FC Gagra1-1FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi1-2FC Gagra
FC Gagra2-0FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi0-1FC Gagra
FC Gagra3-1FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi0-0FC Gagra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Rustavi 1543 · FC Gagra 1560

	FC Rustavi	Draw	FC Gagra
Our model	50%	29%	22%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Gagra: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Rustavi	FC Gagra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.1	1.1 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.81
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.00 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.22 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:21 +16’	1.73	3.50	4.00
09:28 +34’	1.75▲	3.50	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:56 +6’	1.81	3.32	4.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Rustavi 0–2–4 FC Gagra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Rustavi
15/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Gagra
01/11/21 Georgia First League	FC Gagra	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Rustavi
10/09/21 Georgia First League	FC Rustavi	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Gagra
24/05/21 Georgia First League	FC Gagra	3-1 HT 0-0	FC Rustavi
02/04/21 Georgia First League	FC Rustavi	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Gagra

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	21	11	5	5	26	18	38
2	Dinamo Tbilisi	21	9	7	5	33	25	34
3	FC Iberia 1999	20	10	4	6	30	22	34
4	Dinamo Batumi	22	9	7	6	35	32	34
5	Torpedo Kutaisi	21	8	6	7	34	23	30
6	Dila Gori	20	9	2	9	24	20	29
7	Samgurali	21	8	4	9	27	37	28
8	FC Gagra	21	5	9	7	21	27	24
9	FC Spaeri	21	5	8	8	27	28	23
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	22	1	8	13	15	40	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Rustavi	FC Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi	3-0 W	2-1 W
Torpedo Kutaisi	1-0 W	2-1 W
Dila Gori	0-3 L	2-0 W
FC Iberia 1999	2-1 W	0-1 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-0 W	1-1 D
FC Spaeri	2-1 W	1-1 D
Dinamo Batumi	0-1 L	2-2 D
Samgurali	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Rustavi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Rustavi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
07/08	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
22/06	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-3	6	5	L
17/06	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
13/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
29/05	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
25/05	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
21/05	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/05	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
11/05	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	2-3	1	1	L

FC Gagra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
08/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	2-2	5	1	D
24/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
18/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
28/05	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	2-1	1	4	W
24/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
20/05	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
16/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/05	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Rustavi vs FC Gagra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Rustavi win (51%). Probabilities: FC Rustavi 51%, draw 27%, FC Gagra 22%.

How many goals are expected in FC Rustavi vs FC Gagra?

The model expects 2.39 goals (FC Rustavi 1.49 · FC Gagra 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Rustavi vs FC Gagra?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.