Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: FC Spaeri vs Samgurali

Team pages: FC Spaeri · Samgurali

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

FC Spaeri1.4

Samgurali1.46

1X2

35% 27% 38%

FC Spaeri Draw Samgurali

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Spaeri 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDLDLD

Samgurali 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWLDWL

Head-to-head

FC Spaeri 1–1–1 Samgurali (3 last)

FC Spaeri0-1Samgurali
Samgurali0-0FC Spaeri
FC Spaeri4-1Samgurali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Spaeri 1502 · Samgurali 1501

	FC Spaeri	Draw	Samgurali
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Spaeri	Samgurali
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.66
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.29
2	2.45 → 2.38▼	Pinn 2.51 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:01 +5’	2.40	3.30	2.45
09:28 +5’	2.55▲	3.25▼	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:25 +8’	2.63	3.23	2.49
10:50 +11’	2.63	3.24▲	2.49
15:51 +2’	2.66▲	3.29▲	2.51▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Spaeri 1–1–1 Samgurali

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Spaeri	0-1 HT 0-0	Samgurali
17/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Spaeri
16/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Spaeri	4-1 HT 1-0	Samgurali

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	21	11	5	5	26	18	38
2	Dinamo Tbilisi	21	9	7	5	33	25	34
3	FC Iberia 1999	20	10	4	6	30	22	34
4	Dinamo Batumi	22	9	7	6	35	32	34
5	Torpedo Kutaisi	21	8	6	7	34	23	30
6	Dila Gori	20	9	2	9	24	20	29
7	Samgurali	21	8	4	9	27	37	28
8	FC Gagra	21	5	9	7	21	27	24
9	FC Spaeri	21	5	8	8	27	28	23
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	22	1	8	13	15	40	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Spaeri	Samgurali
FC Gagra	1-1 D	0-0 D
Dinamo Tbilisi	1-2 L	3-5 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	0-0 D	2-1 W
Dila Gori	1-3 L	3-2 W
FC Iberia 1999	1-1 D	3-2 W
FC Rustavi	1-2 L	0-1 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	2-1 W	2-1 W
Dinamo Batumi	3-3 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Samgurali (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Spaeri

WDDWLDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
09/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
22/06	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
16/06	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
12/06	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
29/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
25/05	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
21/05	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	3-3	8	6	D
17/05	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
11/05	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	3-0	4	4	W

Samgurali

LDLWWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	1	4	L
09/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
24/06	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
18/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	3-5	8	3	L
13/06	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	6	8	W
29/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	3-2	1	3	W
25/05	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	3-2	3	9	W
21/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
17/05	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
10/05	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-3	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Spaeri vs Samgurali?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Samgurali win (38%). Probabilities: FC Spaeri 35%, draw 27%, Samgurali 38%.

How many goals are expected in FC Spaeri vs Samgurali?

The model expects 2.86 goals (FC Spaeri 1.4 · Samgurali 1.46), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Spaeri vs Samgurali?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.