Football · England Super League Women · 18/10, 15:00
Prediction: Aston Villa (W) vs Liverpool (W)
Team pages: Aston Villa (W) · Liverpool (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.18Total
Aston Villa (W)1.32
Liverpool (W)1.86
1X2
Aston Villa (W)
Draw
Liverpool (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Aston Villa (W)
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Liverpool (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aston Villa (W)
2–4
Liverpool (W)
(6 last)
- Liverpool (W)4-1Aston Villa (W)
- Aston Villa (W)3-0Liverpool (W)
- Liverpool (W)1-2Aston Villa (W)
- Aston Villa (W)1-2Liverpool (W)
- Aston Villa (W)1-4Liverpool (W)
- Liverpool (W)2-0Aston Villa (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aston Villa (W) 1467 · Liverpool (W) 1513
| Aston Villa (W) | Draw | Liverpool (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liverpool (W) (rating 1467 vs 1513).
- H2H favours Liverpool (W): 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aston Villa (W) | Liverpool (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.2 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aston Villa (W) 2–0–4 Liverpool (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 England Super League Women | Liverpool (W) | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Aston Villa (W) |
| 11/12/25 England Super League Women | Aston Villa (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Liverpool (W) |
| 30/03/25 England Super League Women | Liverpool (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Aston Villa (W) |
| 03/11/24 England Super League Women | Aston Villa (W) | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Liverpool (W) |
| 03/03/24 England Super League Women | Aston Villa (W) | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Liverpool (W) |
| 08/10/23 England Super League Women | Liverpool (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Aston Villa (W) |
Standings · England Super League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City (W) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Chelsea (W) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Man Utd (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal (W) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace (W) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| 10 | Brighton (W) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Birmingham (W) | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
| 12 | West Ham (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 3 |
| 13 | Aston Villa (W) | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton (W) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aston Villa (W) | Liverpool (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham (W) | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Man City (W) | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Arsenal (W) | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| West Ham (W) | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Leicester (W) | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Liverpool (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aston Villa (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Crystal Palace (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 27/09 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 05/09 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | London City Lionesses (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 04/05 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
3-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Leicester (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
Liverpool (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Man Utd (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Everton (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Charlton (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Everton (W) England Super League Women |
3-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | Leicester (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aston Villa (W) vs Liverpool (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Liverpool (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Aston Villa (W) 26%, draw 25%, Liverpool (W) 49%.
How many goals are expected in Aston Villa (W) vs Liverpool (W)?
The model expects 3.18 goals (Aston Villa (W) 1.32 · Liverpool (W) 1.86), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa (W) vs Liverpool (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.