Football · England Super League Women · 24/10, 13:45
Prediction: Tottenham (W) vs Arsenal (W)
Team pages: Tottenham (W) · Arsenal (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.21Total
Tottenham (W)1.09
Arsenal (W)2.12
1X2
Tottenham (W)
Draw
Arsenal (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Tottenham (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Arsenal (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tottenham (W)
1–1–4
Arsenal (W)
(6 last)
- Arsenal (W)5-2Tottenham (W)
- Tottenham (W)0-0Arsenal (W)
- Arsenal (W)5-0Tottenham (W)
- Tottenham (W)0-3Arsenal (W)
- Arsenal (W)1-0Tottenham (W)
- Tottenham (W)1-0Arsenal (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tottenham (W) 1513 · Arsenal (W) 1568
| Tottenham (W) | Draw | Arsenal (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| Market | 19% | 21% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal (W) (rating 1513 vs 1568).
- H2H favours Arsenal (W): 4-1-1.
- High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tottenham (W) | Arsenal (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.6 | 1.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.9 | 3.4 / 8.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tottenham (W) 1–1–4 Arsenal (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 England Super League Women | Arsenal (W) | 5-2 HT 3-1 | Tottenham (W) |
| 16/11/25 England Super League Women | Tottenham (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Arsenal (W) |
| 16/02/25 England Super League Women | Arsenal (W) | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Tottenham (W) |
| 16/11/24 England Super League Women | Tottenham (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Arsenal (W) |
| 03/03/24 England Super League Women | Arsenal (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tottenham (W) |
| 16/12/23 England Super League Women | Tottenham (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arsenal (W) |
Standings · England Super League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City (W) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Chelsea (W) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 16 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses (W) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Tottenham (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 10 |
| 5 | Man Utd (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 6 | Everton (W) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Liverpool (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal (W) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | West Ham (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 6 |
| 10 | Aston Villa (W) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace (W) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 6 |
| 12 | Brighton (W) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 5 |
| 13 | Birmingham (W) | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton (W) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tottenham (W) | Arsenal (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea (W) | 2-6 L | 0-1 L |
| Aston Villa (W) | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Liverpool (W) | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Brighton (W) | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Man City (W) | 2-5 L | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Arsenal (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tottenham (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 2-6 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | London City Lionesses (W) England Super League Women |
0-3 | 1-6 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 27/09 | Aston Villa (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Liverpool (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | London City Lionesses (W) England Super League Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Man Utd (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
1-3 | 2-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
1-5 | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
Arsenal (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Birmingham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 04/10 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 2-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 27/09 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Crystal Palace (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Liverpool (W) England Super League Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 13/05 | Everton (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Aston Villa (W) England Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 06/05 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | Leicester (W) England Super League Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tottenham (W) vs Arsenal (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arsenal (W) win (60%). Probabilities: Tottenham (W) 18%, draw 21%, Arsenal (W) 60%.
How many goals are expected in Tottenham (W) vs Arsenal (W)?
The model expects 3.21 goals (Tottenham (W) 1.09 · Arsenal (W) 2.12), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tottenham (W) vs Arsenal (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.