Football · England Super League Women · 25/10, 19:00
Prediction: Man Utd (W) vs Man City (W)
Team pages: Man Utd (W) · Man City (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.65Total
Man Utd (W)1.28
Man City (W)2.36
1X2
Man Utd (W)
Draw
Man City (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Man Utd (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Man City (W)
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Man Utd (W)
2–1–3
Man City (W)
(6 last)
- Man Utd (W)0-3Man City (W)
- Man City (W)3-0Man Utd (W)
- Man Utd (W)2-2Man City (W)
- Man City (W)0-2Man Utd (W)
- Man Utd (W)1-2Man City (W)
- Man City (W)2-4Man Utd (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Man Utd (W) 1549 · Man City (W) 1635
| Man Utd (W) | Draw | Man City (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 21% | 61% |
| Market | 19% | 21% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Man City (W) (rating 1549 vs 1635).
- H2H favours Man City (W): 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Man Utd (W) | Man City (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.7 | 3.5 / 7.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 1.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Man Utd (W) 2–1–3 Man City (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 England Super League Women | Man Utd (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Man City (W) |
| 15/11/25 England Super League Women | Man City (W) | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Man Utd (W) |
| 04/05/25 England Super League Women | Man Utd (W) | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Man City (W) |
| 13/04/25 England FA Cup Women | Man City (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Man Utd (W) |
| 22/01/25 England League Cup Women | Man Utd (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Man City (W) |
| 19/01/25 England Super League Women | Man City (W) | 2-4 HT 2-3 | Man Utd (W) |
Standings · England Super League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City (W) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Chelsea (W) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 16 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses (W) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Tottenham (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 10 |
| 5 | Man Utd (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 6 | Everton (W) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Liverpool (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal (W) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | West Ham (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 6 |
| 10 | Aston Villa (W) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace (W) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 6 |
| 12 | Brighton (W) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 5 |
| 13 | Birmingham (W) | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton (W) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Man Utd (W) | Man City (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton (W) | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Liverpool (W) | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| West Ham (W) | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Brighton (W) | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Tottenham (W) | 0-0 D | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 5 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Man City (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Man Utd (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Charlton (W) England Super League Women |
3-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 03/10 | Liverpool (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | London City Lionesses (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 21/03 | Everton (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Man City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
3-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 04/10 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/09 | Charlton (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Aston Villa (W) England Super League Women |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | Birmingham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Liverpool (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Man Utd (W) England Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
5-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Man Utd (W) vs Man City (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Man City (W) win (60%). Probabilities: Man Utd (W) 19%, draw 21%, Man City (W) 60%.
How many goals are expected in Man Utd (W) vs Man City (W)?
The model expects 3.65 goals (Man Utd (W) 1.28 · Man City (W) 2.36), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Man Utd (W) vs Man City (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.