Football · England Super League Women · 18/10, 15:30
Prediction: Man City (W) vs Brighton (W)
Team pages: Man City (W) · Brighton (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.25Total
Man City (W)2.34
Brighton (W)0.9
1X2
Man City (W)
Draw
Brighton (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Man City (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Brighton (W)
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Man City (W)
5–1
Brighton (W)
(6 last)
- Brighton (W)0-4Man City (W)
- Brighton (W)3-2Man City (W)
- Man City (W)2-1Brighton (W)
- Brighton (W)1-2Man City (W)
- Man City (W)1-0Brighton (W)
- Brighton (W)1-4Man City (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Man City (W) 1637 · Brighton (W) 1475
| Man City (W) | Draw | Brighton (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Man City (W) (rating 1637 vs 1475).
- H2H favours Man City (W): 5-0-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Man City (W) | Brighton (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 8.1 | 2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Man City (W) 5–0–1 Brighton (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 England FA Cup Women | Brighton (W) | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Man City (W) |
| 25/04/26 England Super League Women | Brighton (W) | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Man City (W) |
| 12/09/25 England Super League Women | Man City (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Brighton (W) |
| 30/03/25 England Super League Women | Brighton (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Man City (W) |
| 29/09/24 England Super League Women | Man City (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Brighton (W) |
| 17/03/24 England Super League Women | Brighton (W) | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Man City (W) |
Standings · England Super League Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City (W) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Chelsea (W) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Man Utd (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal (W) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace (W) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| 10 | Brighton (W) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Birmingham (W) | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
| 12 | West Ham (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 3 |
| 13 | Aston Villa (W) | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton (W) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Man City (W) | Brighton (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (W) | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Charlton (W) | 1-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Birmingham (W) | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Liverpool (W) | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Man Utd (W) | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Tottenham (W) | 5-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Man City (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Man City (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/09 | Charlton (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Aston Villa (W) England Super League Women |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | Birmingham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Liverpool (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Man Utd (W) England Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
5-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Aston Villa (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 3 | D |
Brighton (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Charlton (W) England Super League Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/09 | London City Lionesses (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Birmingham (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Man Utd (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 29/03 | Leicester (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | Liverpool (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Man City (W) vs Brighton (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Man City (W) win (69%). Probabilities: Man City (W) 69%, draw 18%, Brighton (W) 13%.
How many goals are expected in Man City (W) vs Brighton (W)?
The model expects 3.25 goals (Man City (W) 2.34 · Brighton (W) 0.9), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Man City (W) vs Brighton (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.