Football · Uruguay Clausura · 16/08, 20:00
Prediction: Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo
Team pages: Defensor Sporting · Liverpool Montevideo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.95Total
Defensor Sporting0.98
Liverpool Montevideo0.97
1X2
Defensor Sporting
Draw
Liverpool Montevideo
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Defensor Sporting
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Liverpool Montevideo
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensor Sporting
3–3
Liverpool Montevideo
(6 last)
- Defensor Sporting1-2Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo1-2Defensor Sporting
- Liverpool Montevideo2-0Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting4-2Liverpool Montevideo
- Defensor Sporting0-1Liverpool Montevideo
- Defensor Sporting2-1Liverpool Montevideo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting 1441 · Liverpool Montevideo 1510
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Market | 36% | 30% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.95 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liverpool Montevideo (rating 1441 vs 1510).
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensor Sporting | Liverpool Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.4 | 1.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting 3–0–3 Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Defensor Sporting | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 14/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Liverpool Montevideo | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Defensor Sporting |
| 30/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Liverpool Montevideo | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 15/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Defensor Sporting | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 07/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 22/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Defensor Sporting | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Liverpool Montevideo |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensor Sporting | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Cerro | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Cerro Largo | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Boston River | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Penarol | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Central Espanol | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Liverpool Montevideo (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 04/08 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/07 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Cruzeiro America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 10 | L |
Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 11 | D |
| 25/07 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 09/06 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 01/06 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 23/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 16/05 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Danubio Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensor Sporting win (35%). Probabilities: Defensor Sporting 35%, draw 32%, Liverpool Montevideo 34%.
How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The model expects 1.95 goals (Defensor Sporting 0.98 · Liverpool Montevideo 0.97), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.