Football · Uruguay Clausura · 16/08, 16:00

Prediction: Club Atletico Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado

Team pages: Club Atletico Progreso · Deportivo Maldonado

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Club Atletico Progreso0.94

Deportivo Maldonado1.21

1X2

28% 31% 41%

Club Atletico Progreso Draw Deportivo Maldonado

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico Progreso 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLWLL

Deportivo Maldonado 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWDLD

Head-to-head

Club Atletico Progreso 3–1–2 Deportivo Maldonado (6 last)

Club Atletico Progreso1-0Deportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado2-0Club Atletico Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado2-2Club Atletico Progreso
Club Atletico Progreso0-1Deportivo Maldonado
Club Atletico Progreso3-1Deportivo Maldonado
Club Atletico Progreso2-0Deportivo Maldonado

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico Progreso 1434 · Deportivo Maldonado 1556

	Club Atletico Progreso	Draw	Deportivo Maldonado
Our model	27%	32%	41%
Market	28%	30%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Maldonado (rating 1434 vs 1556).
H2H favours Club Atletico Progreso: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico Progreso	Deportivo Maldonado
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.5	5.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.10

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +5’	3.25	3.10	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Progreso 3–1–2 Deportivo Maldonado

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Club Atletico Progreso	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Maldonado
14/02/26 Uruguay Apertura	Deportivo Maldonado	2-0 HT 1-0	Club Atletico Progreso
06/10/24 Uruguay Clausura	Deportivo Maldonado	2-2 HT 2-0	Club Atletico Progreso
21/07/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Club Atletico Progreso	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Maldonado
31/03/24 Uruguay Apertura	Club Atletico Progreso	3-1 HT 2-1	Deportivo Maldonado
21/10/21 Uruguay Clausura	Club Atletico Progreso	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Maldonado

Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montevideo Wanderers	7	4	3	0	12	4	15
2	Nacional De Football	7	4	1	2	8	8	13
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	12	6	12
4	Torque	7	4	0	3	11	11	12
5	Juventud De Las Piedras	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
6	Albion FC	7	1	3	3	6	8	6
7	Club Atletico Progreso	7	2	0	5	6	11	6
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	5	9	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico Progreso	Deportivo Maldonado
Nacional De Football	1-2 L	3-0 W
Montevideo Wanderers	0-2 L	1-1 D
Albion FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Danubio	2-1 W	3-1 W
Torque	1-2 L	4-2 W
Juventud De Las Piedras	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Maldonado (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Club Atletico Progreso

LLLLWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
02/08	Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
18/07	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
11/07	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
07/06	Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-2	1-2	7	6	L
30/05	Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
23/05	Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	1-2	3	10	L
16/05	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
10/05	Torque Uruguay Apertura	1-2	1-2	4	7	L
03/05	Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	6	L

Deportivo Maldonado

LWWWDWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-0	10	5	D
18/07	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
11/07	Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	2-1	4-2	1	5	W
31/05	Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	3-0	7	7	W
24/05	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
18/05	Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	2-0	3-1	4	9	W
11/05	Boston River Uruguay Apertura	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
02/05	Cerro Uruguay Apertura	0-0	1-0	11	6	W
25/04	Albion FC Uruguay Apertura	1-1	1-2	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Maldonado win (41%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Progreso 28%, draw 31%, Deportivo Maldonado 41%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Club Atletico Progreso 0.94 · Deportivo Maldonado 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.