Football · Bulgaria First League · 15/08, 17:00
Prediction: CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Team pages: CSKA Sofia · Botev Vratsa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
CSKA Sofia1.83
Botev Vratsa0.57
1X2
CSKA Sofia
Draw
Botev Vratsa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
CSKA Sofia
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Botev Vratsa
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CSKA Sofia
4–2–0
Botev Vratsa
(6 last)
- CSKA Sofia1-0Botev Vratsa
- Botev Vratsa1-1CSKA Sofia
- Botev Vratsa1-1CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia2-0Botev Vratsa
- CSKA Sofia3-0Botev Vratsa
- Botev Vratsa0-2CSKA Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CSKA Sofia 1609 · Botev Vratsa 1515
| CSKA Sofia | Draw | Botev Vratsa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 23% | 10% |
| Market | 68% | 21% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia (rating 1609 vs 1515).
- H2H favours CSKA Sofia: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CSKA Sofia | Botev Vratsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.9 | 1.6 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CSKA Sofia 4–2–0 Botev Vratsa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Botev Vratsa |
| 22/09/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 1-1 HT 0-0 | CSKA Sofia |
| 05/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 1-1 HT 1-0 | CSKA Sofia |
| 24/10/24 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Botev Vratsa |
| 18/02/24 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Botev Vratsa |
| 19/08/23 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 0-2 HT 0-1 | CSKA Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Spartak Varna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Maccabi Tel Aviv UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | FK Qarabag UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 27/07 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 17 | 5 | W |
| 23/07 | FK Qarabag UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 20/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 16/07 | Derry City UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/07 | Derry City UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/07 | Marek Dupnitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | Odra Opole Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-2 | 13 | 0 | W |
Botev Vratsa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 10/07 | Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | Beitar Jerusalem Europe Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/07 | Spartak Pleven Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Levski Sofia Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 18/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CSKA Sofia win (67%). Probabilities: CSKA Sofia 67%, draw 22%, Botev Vratsa 10%.
How many goals are expected in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
The model expects 2.4 goals (CSKA Sofia 1.83 · Botev Vratsa 0.57), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.