Football · Bulgaria First League · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse

Team pages: Cherno More Varna · Dunav Ruse

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Cherno More Varna1.76
Dunav Ruse0.8
1X2
60% 24% 16%
Cherno More Varna Draw Dunav Ruse
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Cherno More Varna 2-2-6 (W-D-L)
LLWWDDLLLL
Dunav Ruse 1-3-6 (W-D-L)
LWLDDDLLLL
Head-to-head
Cherno More Varna 2–3–1 Dunav Ruse (6 last)
  • Cherno More Varna1-1Dunav Ruse
  • Cherno More Varna2-1Dunav Ruse
  • Cherno More Varna0-0Dunav Ruse
  • Cherno More Varna1-2Dunav Ruse
  • Cherno More Varna4-1Dunav Ruse
  • Dunav Ruse0-0Cherno More Varna
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cherno More Varna 1448 · Dunav Ruse 1428
Cherno More VarnaDrawDunav Ruse
Our model59%25%16%
Market60%23%17%
Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Cherno More Varna: 2-3-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Cherno More VarnaDunav Ruse
Goals for / against (FT)0.9 / 2.10.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.50.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/20/40%20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)2.5 / 5.21 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.2 / 02.5 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cherno More Varna 231 Dunav Ruse

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DateHomeScoreAway
11/07/26
Europe Friendlies
Cherno More Varna1-1
HT 0-1
Dunav Ruse
01/02/25
Club Friendly List
Cherno More Varna2-1
HT 1-0
Dunav Ruse
07/02/24
Club Friendly List
Cherno More Varna0-0
HT 0-0
Dunav Ruse
05/07/23
Club Friendly List
Cherno More Varna1-2
HT 0-1
Dunav Ruse
09/02/22
Europe Friendlies
Cherno More Varna4-1
HT 1-0
Dunav Ruse
01/09/21
Europe Friendlies
Dunav Ruse0-0
HT 0-0
Cherno More Varna

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Ludogorets Razgrad 5500 10315
2 CSKA 1948 Sofia 5410 13613
3 Levski Sofia 4400 9212
4 CSKA Sofia 4310 8310
5 Botev Plovdiv 5212 787
6 Arda Kardzhali 4211 537
7 Spartak Varna 4211 857
8 Slavia Sofia 4121 425
9 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4103 253
10 Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 4022 472
11 Botev Vratsa 4013 381
12 Cherno More Varna 5014 4121
13 Septemvri Sofia 4013 291
14 Dunav Ruse 4004 280

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentCherno More VarnaDunav Ruse
Ludogorets Razgrad 2-3 L 0-2 L
Spartak Varna 0-3 L 0-0 D
Yantra Gabrovo 1-0 W 0-1 L
Arda Kardzhali 2-3 L 0-2 L
Record vs common 1 W 0 D 3 L 0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cherno More Varna (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cherno More Varna

LLWWDDLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
14/08 CSKA 1948 Sofia
Bulgaria First League
1-1 1-4 32 L
09/08 Ludogorets Razgrad
Bulgaria First League
1-0 2-3 36 L
01/08 Botev Plovdiv
Bulgaria First League
0-1 0-1 66 L
26/07 Spartak Varna
Bulgaria First League
0-1 0-3 94 L
19/07 Botev Vratsa
Bulgaria First League
0-0 1-1 47 D
11/07 Dunav Ruse
Europe Friendlies
0-1 1-1 112 D
03/07 Spartak Pleven
Club Friendly List
1-0 1-0 30 W
24/06 Yantra Gabrovo
Club Friendly List
1-0 1-0 72 W
25/05 Arda Kardzhali
Bulgaria First League
1-0 2-3 32 L
16/05 Botev Plovdiv
Bulgaria First League
0-1 0-5 31 L

Dunav Ruse

LWLDDDLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
08/08 Arda Kardzhali
Bulgaria First League
0-1 0-2 55 L
02/08 CSKA Sofia
Bulgaria First League
1-1 1-2 24 L
27/07 Ludogorets Razgrad
Bulgaria First League
0-1 0-2 21 L
17/07 Levski Sofia
Bulgaria First League
0-1 1-2 01 L
11/07 Cherno More Varna
Europe Friendlies
1-0 1-1 32 D
01/07 PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich
Club Friendly List
0-0 1-1 D
27/06 Spartak Varna
Europe Friendlies
0-0 0-0 51 D
20/06 Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Club Friendly List
1-0 1-2 34 L
23/05 Minyor Pernik
Bulgaria Second League
0-1 2-1 W
15/05 Yantra Gabrovo
Bulgaria Second League
0-1 0-1 33 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cherno More Varna win (60%). Probabilities: Cherno More Varna 60%, draw 24%, Dunav Ruse 16%.

How many goals are expected in Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Cherno More Varna 1.76 · Dunav Ruse 0.8), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.