Football · Bulgaria First League · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia

Team pages: Septemvri Sofia · CSKA 1948 Sofia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Septemvri Sofia0.82

CSKA 1948 Sofia1.74

1X2

17% 25% 58%

Septemvri Sofia Draw CSKA 1948 Sofia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Septemvri Sofia 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLDLLL

CSKA 1948 Sofia 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWDWDWDW

Head-to-head

Septemvri Sofia 0–1–5 CSKA 1948 Sofia (6 last)

Septemvri Sofia1-4CSKA 1948 Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia2-1Septemvri Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia2-0Septemvri Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia2-0Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia1-1CSKA 1948 Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia2-1Septemvri Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Septemvri Sofia 1492 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1578

	Septemvri Sofia	Draw	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Our model	16%	26%	58%
Market	17%	25%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA 1948 Sofia (rating 1492 vs 1578).
H2H favours CSKA 1948 Sofia: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Septemvri Sofia	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	2.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.50

X3.75

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.77

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:30 +3’	5.50	3.75	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Septemvri Sofia 0–1–5 CSKA 1948 Sofia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/12/25 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	1-4 HT 0-1	CSKA 1948 Sofia
01/08/25 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-1 HT 2-1	Septemvri Sofia
11/05/25 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-0 HT 1-0	Septemvri Sofia
03/12/24 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-0 HT 1-0	Septemvri Sofia
25/09/24 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	1-1 HT 1-1	CSKA 1948 Sofia
17/11/23 Club Friendly List	CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-1 HT 0-0	Septemvri Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ludogorets Razgrad	5	5	0	0	10	3	15
2	CSKA 1948 Sofia	5	4	1	0	13	6	13
3	Levski Sofia	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
4	CSKA Sofia	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
5	Botev Plovdiv	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
6	Arda Kardzhali	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Spartak Varna	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
8	Slavia Sofia	4	1	2	1	4	2	5
9	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	4	1	0	3	2	5	3
10	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
11	Botev Vratsa	4	0	1	3	3	8	1
12	Cherno More Varna	5	0	1	4	4	12	1
13	Septemvri Sofia	4	0	1	3	2	9	1
14	Dunav Ruse	4	0	0	4	2	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Septemvri Sofia	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Arda Kardzhali	1-1 D	2-1 W
Spartak Varna	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Septemvri Sofia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
01/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	0	4	L
26/07	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
10/07	Ludogorets Razgrad Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
27/06	Marek Dupnitsa Club Friendly List	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
28/05	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria First League Play-Offs	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
22/05	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	2	15	D
18/05	Beroe Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
14/05	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	5	8	W

CSKA 1948 Sofia

WDDWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-1	4-1	7	2	W
11/08	Panathinaikos UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
08/08	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	3-1	5	5	W
05/08	Panathinaikos UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
31/07	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
28/07	FC Spartak Trnava UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	5	12	D
25/07	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
22/07	FC Spartak Trnava UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
17/07	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	5	3	D
07/07	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA 1948 Sofia win (58%). Probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 17%, draw 25%, CSKA 1948 Sofia 58%.

How many goals are expected in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Septemvri Sofia 0.82 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.74), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.