Football · Bulgaria First League · 15/08, 17:00
Prediction: Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Team pages: Arda Kardzhali · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Arda Kardzhali1.54
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0.85
1X2
Arda Kardzhali
Draw
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Arda Kardzhali
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arda Kardzhali
4–2–0
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
(6 last)
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0-0Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali1-1Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- Arda Kardzhali5-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0-2Arda Kardzhali
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0-1Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali1-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arda Kardzhali 1528 · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1492
| Arda Kardzhali | Draw | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Arda Kardzhali: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.9 | 2.8 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arda Kardzhali 4–2–0 Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 27/07/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 13/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 02/11/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 09/12/23 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 11/08/23 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Spartak Varna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Slavia Sofia | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Botev Vratsa | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Botev Plovdiv | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/07 | Botev Vratsa Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 07/07 | Beitar Jerusalem Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 04/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 01/07 | Rilski Sportist Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/06 | Botev Plovdiv Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/07 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 26/06 | KF Drita Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 18/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 05/05 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arda Kardzhali win (53%). Probabilities: Arda Kardzhali 53%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 20%.
How many goals are expected in Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Arda Kardzhali 1.54 · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 0.85), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.