Football · Bulgaria First League · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali

Team pages: Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Arda Kardzhali

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.97

Arda Kardzhali1.08

1X2

31% 32% 37%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Draw Arda Kardzhali

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWLWLL

Arda Kardzhali 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLDWLW

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–1–2 Arda Kardzhali (6 last)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv2-0Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali4-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv2-0Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali0-4Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-2Arda Kardzhali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1514 · Arda Kardzhali 1519

	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Draw	Arda Kardzhali
Our model	31%	33%	36%
Market	32%	31%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Arda Kardzhali
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 3.3	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.00

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.08

2 (0)1.73

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +3’	2.90	3.00	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–1–2 Arda Kardzhali

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2-0 HT 0-0	Arda Kardzhali
16/05/26 Bulgaria First League	Arda Kardzhali	4-0 HT 3-0	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
08/05/26 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2-0 HT 0-0	Arda Kardzhali
30/04/26 Bulgaria Cup	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1-1 HT 1-0	Arda Kardzhali
22/04/26 Bulgaria Cup	Arda Kardzhali	0-4 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
06/12/25 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0-2 HT 0-2	Arda Kardzhali

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ludogorets Razgrad	5	5	0	0	10	3	15
2	CSKA 1948 Sofia	5	4	1	0	13	6	13
3	Levski Sofia	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
4	CSKA Sofia	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
5	Botev Plovdiv	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
6	Arda Kardzhali	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Spartak Varna	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
8	Slavia Sofia	4	1	2	1	4	2	5
9	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	4	1	0	3	2	5	3
10	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
11	Botev Vratsa	4	0	1	3	3	8	1
12	Cherno More Varna	5	0	1	4	4	12	1
13	Septemvri Sofia	4	0	1	3	2	9	1
14	Dunav Ruse	4	0	0	4	2	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Arda Kardzhali
Septemvri Sofia	2-1 W	1-1 D
Rilski Sportist	2-0 W	2-0 W
Botev Plovdiv	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Plovdiv (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

LDWDWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
03/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	4	10	L
26/07	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
18/07	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
08/07	Rilski Sportist Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/07	Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
29/05	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
25/05	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
20/05	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria Cup	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
16/05	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-3	0-4	2	2	L

Arda Kardzhali

WLWLDLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
31/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
24/07	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
18/07	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
10/07	Botev Vratsa Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
07/07	Beitar Jerusalem Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
04/07	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
01/07	Rilski Sportist Club Friendly List	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
26/06	Botev Plovdiv Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
25/05	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-1	3-2	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Arda Kardzhali win (37%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 31%, draw 32%, Arda Kardzhali 37%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.97 · Arda Kardzhali 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.