Football · Bulgaria First League · 22/08, 20:15
Prediction: Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Team pages: Levski Sofia · Spartak Varna
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Levski Sofia1.98
Spartak Varna0.46
1X2
Levski Sofia
Draw
Spartak Varna
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Levski Sofia
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Spartak Varna
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Levski Sofia
4–2–0
Spartak Varna
(6 last)
- Spartak Varna1-3Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia2-1Spartak Varna
- Levski Sofia2-0Spartak Varna
- Spartak Varna0-0Levski Sofia
- Spartak Varna2-2Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia5-0Spartak Varna
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Levski Sofia 1633 · Spartak Varna 1502
| Levski Sofia | Draw | Spartak Varna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 20% | 7% |
| Market | 74% | 18% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1633 vs 1502).
- H2H favours Levski Sofia: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Levski Sofia | Spartak Varna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.5 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.8 | 2.4 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 5.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Levski Sofia 4–2–0 Spartak Varna
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/25 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Levski Sofia |
| 10/08/25 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Spartak Varna |
| 21/02/25 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Spartak Varna |
| 31/08/24 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Levski Sofia |
| 06/11/22 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Levski Sofia |
| 16/07/22 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Spartak Varna |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 11 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| 14 | Botev Vratsa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Levski Sofia | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Septemvri Sofia | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Levski Sofia (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Levski Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 17/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
Spartak Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 10/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 10 | W |
| 26/07 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 17/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/05 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/05 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Levski Sofia win (74%). Probabilities: Levski Sofia 74%, draw 19%, Spartak Varna 7%.
How many goals are expected in Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Levski Sofia 1.98 · Spartak Varna 0.46), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.