Football · Bulgaria First League · 16/08, 20:15
Prediction: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse
Team pages: Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Dunav Ruse
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.17Total
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1.43
Dunav Ruse0.74
1X2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Draw
Dunav Ruse
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Dunav Ruse
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3–2–1
Dunav Ruse
(6 last)
- Dunav Ruse1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Dunav Ruse0-3Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv3-1Dunav Ruse
- Dunav Ruse2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Dunav Ruse
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv4-1Dunav Ruse
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1497 · Dunav Ruse 1439
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | Dunav Ruse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 30% | 18% |
| Market | 55% | 25% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv (rating 1497 vs 1439).
- H2H favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Dunav Ruse | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.8 / 3.3 | 1 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–2–1 Dunav Ruse
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/25 Bulgaria Cup | Dunav Ruse | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 09/12/19 Bulgaria First League | Dunav Ruse | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 19/08/19 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Dunav Ruse |
| 19/04/19 Bulgaria First League | Dunav Ruse | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 29/03/19 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Dunav Ruse |
| 09/03/19 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Dunav Ruse |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 11 | Cherno More Varna | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Dunav Ruse |
|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Spartak Varna | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Arda Kardzhali | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| CSKA Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Plovdiv (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 26/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/07 | Rilski Sportist Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 16/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
Dunav Ruse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 17/07 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Cherno More Varna Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 01/07 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/06 | Spartak Varna Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (54%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 54%, draw 27%, Dunav Ruse 19%.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse?
The model expects 2.17 goals (Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.43 · Dunav Ruse 0.74), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.