Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 27/09, 11:30

Prediction: CD Manchego CR vs Marchamalo

Team pages: CD Manchego CR · Marchamalo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

CD Manchego CR1.32

Marchamalo0.7

1X2

51% 29% 20%

CD Manchego CR Draw Marchamalo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Manchego CR 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWLDDWWW

Marchamalo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLWWD

Head-to-head

CD Manchego CR 3–1–2 Marchamalo (6 last)

Marchamalo2-2CD Manchego CR
CD Manchego CR2-1Marchamalo
Marchamalo1-0CD Manchego CR
CD Manchego CR2-0Marchamalo
CD Manchego CR3-1Marchamalo
Marchamalo3-1CD Manchego CR

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Manchego CR 1565 · Marchamalo 1514

	CD Manchego CR	Draw	Marchamalo
Our model	50%	31%	19%
Market	52%	27%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Manchego CR (rating 1565 vs 1514).
H2H favours CD Manchego CR: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Manchego CR	Marchamalo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.4	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/43/0%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 4.3	2.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.30

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.87 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +4’	1.73	3.30	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +75’	1.87	3.22	3.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Manchego CR 3–1–2 Marchamalo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	Marchamalo	2-2 HT 1-0	CD Manchego CR
25/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Manchego CR	2-1 HT 1-0	Marchamalo
01/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Marchamalo	1-0	CD Manchego CR
19/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Manchego CR	2-0 HT 1-0	Marchamalo
22/04/23 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Manchego CR	3-1 HT 2-0	Marchamalo
08/01/23 Spain Tercera Group 18	Marchamalo	3-1 HT 2-0	CD Manchego CR

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	3	3	0	0	4	0	9
2	Marchamalo	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
3	CD Noblejas	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
4	CD Torrijos	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
5	Villarrobledo	3	1	2	0	5	1	5
6	Illescas	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
7	Almansa	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
8	CD Villacanas	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
9	Toledo	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
10	CD Tarancon	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
11	La Solana	3	1	0	2	4	4	3
12	Socuéllamos	3	0	3	0	1	1	3
13	CD Villa	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
14	AD San Clemente	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
14	Villarrubia CF	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
16	CD Quintanar del Rey	3	0	2	1	5	7	2
17	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
18	Huracan Balazote	3	0	0	3	0	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Manchego CR	Marchamalo
Huracan Balazote	1-0 W	2-0 W
CD Tarancon	0-0 D	0-1 L
CD Sonseca	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Marchamalo (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Manchego CR

LWDWLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
12/09	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
05/09	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
17/05	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/05	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
03/05	CD Sonseca Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
25/04	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/04	Albacete B Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
11/04	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-0	–	–	W
02/04	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L

Marchamalo

LLWLDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	2-2	14	5	D
13/09	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
05/09	CD Villa Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/05	CD Sonseca Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
03/05	Azuqueca Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-4	–	–	L
25/04	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	2-2	2-2	1	5	D
18/04	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
12/04	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/04	Calvo Sotelo Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-3	8	2	L
29/03	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Manchego CR vs Marchamalo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Manchego CR win (51%). Probabilities: CD Manchego CR 51%, draw 29%, Marchamalo 20%.

How many goals are expected in CD Manchego CR vs Marchamalo?

The model expects 2.02 goals (CD Manchego CR 1.32 · Marchamalo 0.7), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Manchego CR vs Marchamalo?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.