Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 20/09, 19:15

Prediction: Marchamalo vs CD Guadalajara S.A.D B

Team pages: Marchamalo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Marchamalo1.27

CD Guadalajara S.A.D B0.74

1X2

48% 30% 21%

Marchamalo Draw CD Guadalajara S.A.D B

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Marchamalo 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLDLLWW

CD Guadalajara S.A.D B 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLWLLL

Head-to-head

Marchamalo 0–1–1 CD Guadalajara S.A.D B (2 last)

CD Guadalajara S.A.D B1-0Marchamalo
Marchamalo1-1CD Guadalajara S.A.D B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marchamalo 1523 · CD Guadalajara S.A.D B 1466

	Marchamalo	Draw	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B
Our model	48%	32%	21%
Market	49%	29%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marchamalo (rating 1523 vs 1466).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marchamalo	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	0/71/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.10

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.89 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.16
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +87’	1.83	3.10	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +130’	1.89	3.16	3.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Marchamalo 0–1–1 CD Guadalajara S.A.D B

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	1-0 HT 0-0	Marchamalo
06/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Marchamalo	1-1 HT 1-1	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Marchamalo	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	CD Manchego CR	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	CD Torrijos	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
4	Toledo	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
5	CD Noblejas	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Illescas	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
7	Almansa	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
8	CD Villacanas	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
9	CD Villa	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
10	AD San Clemente	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
10	Villarrubia CF	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
12	Villarrobledo	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	Socuéllamos	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
14	CD Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
15	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
15	CD Tarancon	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
17	La Solana	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
18	Huracan Balazote	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marchamalo	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B
CD Villa	2-0 W	0-1 L
Azuqueca	0-4 L	0-2 L
Villarrubia CF	2-2 D	2-0 W
CD Tarancon	0-1 L	0-3 L
CD Pedroneras	1-0 W	1-1 D
Calvo Sotelo	1-3 L	0-4 L
AD San Clemente	0-1 L	2-1 W
CD Villacanas	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Marchamalo (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marchamalo

WLLWLDLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
05/09	CD Villa Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/05	CD Sonseca Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
03/05	Azuqueca Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-4	–	–	L
25/04	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	2-2	2-2	1	5	D
18/04	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
12/04	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/04	Calvo Sotelo Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-3	8	2	L
29/03	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
21/03	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-0	4	8	W

CD Guadalajara S.A.D B

DDWLDLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CD Villa Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	CD Torrijos Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
10/05	Azuqueca Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
25/04	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
18/04	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
12/04	Calvo Sotelo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
02/04	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
28/03	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/03	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marchamalo vs CD Guadalajara S.A.D B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marchamalo win (48%). Probabilities: Marchamalo 48%, draw 30%, CD Guadalajara S.A.D B 21%.

How many goals are expected in Marchamalo vs CD Guadalajara S.A.D B?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Marchamalo 1.27 · CD Guadalajara S.A.D B 0.74), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Marchamalo vs CD Guadalajara S.A.D B?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.