Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: CD Guadalajara S.A.D B vs CD Tarancon

Team pages: CD Guadalajara S.A.D B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

CD Guadalajara S.A.D B0.82

CD Tarancon1.16

1X2

26% 30% 44%

CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Draw CD Tarancon

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Guadalajara S.A.D B 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWLLLD

CD Tarancon 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDLLW

Head-to-head

CD Guadalajara S.A.D B 0–2 CD Tarancon (2 last)

CD Tarancon3-0CD Guadalajara S.A.D B
CD Guadalajara S.A.D B0-1CD Tarancon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Guadalajara S.A.D B 1451 · CD Tarancon 1531

	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	Draw	CD Tarancon
Our model	25%	33%	42%
Market	27%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Tarancon (rating 1451 vs 1531).
H2H favours CD Tarancon: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	CD Tarancon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/57/29%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	1 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.25

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.42
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.18 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:13 +3’	3.30	3.25	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:28 +48’	3.96	3.01	1.92
22:41 +31’	3.42▼	2.83▼	2.18▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Guadalajara S.A.D B 0–0–2 CD Tarancon

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Tarancon	3-0 HT 1-0	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B
14/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	0-1	CD Tarancon

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	3	3	0	0	4	0	9
2	Marchamalo	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
3	CD Noblejas	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
4	CD Torrijos	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
5	Villarrobledo	3	1	2	0	5	1	5
6	Illescas	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
7	Almansa	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
8	CD Villacanas	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
9	Toledo	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
10	CD Tarancon	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
11	La Solana	3	1	0	2	4	4	3
12	Socuéllamos	3	0	3	0	1	1	3
13	CD Villa	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
14	AD San Clemente	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
14	Villarrubia CF	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
16	CD Quintanar del Rey	3	0	2	1	5	7	2
17	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
18	Huracan Balazote	3	0	0	3	0	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	CD Tarancon
Marchamalo	2-2 D	1-0 W
CD Villa	0-1 L	2-1 W
CD Torrijos	0-1 L	0-1 L
Azuqueca	0-2 L	2-1 W
Villarrubia CF	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Tarancon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Guadalajara S.A.D B

DWLDLWLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-2	1	5	D
12/09	CD Villa Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	CD Torrijos Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
10/05	Azuqueca Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
25/04	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
18/04	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
12/04	Calvo Sotelo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
02/04	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
28/03	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D

CD Tarancon

LWWWWWDLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CD Villa Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/09	CD Torrijos Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
05/09	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
17/05	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
10/05	CD Cazalegas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-0	–	–	W
03/05	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-0	–	–	W
25/04	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	3-0	11	3	W
18/04	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/04	Azuqueca Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
02/04	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-2	2	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Guadalajara S.A.D B vs CD Tarancon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Tarancon win (44%). Probabilities: CD Guadalajara S.A.D B 26%, draw 30%, CD Tarancon 44%.

How many goals are expected in CD Guadalajara S.A.D B vs CD Tarancon?

The model expects 1.99 goals (CD Guadalajara S.A.D B 0.82 · CD Tarancon 1.16), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Guadalajara S.A.D B vs CD Tarancon?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.