Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 27/09, 12:00

Prediction: Illescas vs Villarrubia CF

Team pages: Villarrubia CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Illescas1.24

Villarrubia CF0.72

1X2

48% 31% 21%

Illescas Draw Villarrubia CF

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Illescas 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDDWDD

Villarrubia CF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLWDDL

Head-to-head

Illescas 3–3–0 Villarrubia CF (6 last)

Illescas0-0Villarrubia CF
Villarrubia CF2-3Illescas
Illescas0-0Villarrubia CF
Villarrubia CF0-1Illescas
Villarrubia CF1-1Illescas
Illescas2-0Villarrubia CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Illescas 1494 · Villarrubia CF 1465

	Illescas	Draw	Villarrubia CF
Our model	47%	32%	20%
Market	49%	30%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Illescas: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Illescas	Villarrubia CF
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/43/43%	17/50/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.6 / 0	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.00

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.34
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.88 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +16’	1.85	3.00	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +26’	1.66	3.34	4.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Illescas 3–3–0 Villarrubia CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	Illescas	0-0 HT 0-0	Villarrubia CF
18/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	2-3 HT 0-2	Illescas
06/05/23 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Illescas	0-0 HT 0-0	Villarrubia CF
30/04/23 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Villarrubia CF	0-1 HT 0-0	Illescas
18/02/23 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	1-1 HT 1-0	Illescas
15/10/22 Spain Tercera Group 18	Illescas	2-0	Villarrubia CF

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	3	3	0	0	4	0	9
2	Marchamalo	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
3	CD Noblejas	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
4	CD Torrijos	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
5	Villarrobledo	3	1	2	0	5	1	5
6	Illescas	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
7	Almansa	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
8	CD Villacanas	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
9	Toledo	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
10	CD Tarancon	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
11	La Solana	3	1	0	2	4	4	3
12	Socuéllamos	3	0	3	0	1	1	3
13	CD Villa	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
14	AD San Clemente	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
14	Villarrubia CF	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
16	CD Quintanar del Rey	3	0	2	1	5	7	2
17	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
18	Huracan Balazote	3	0	0	3	0	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Illescas	Villarrubia CF
CD Tarancon	1-0 W	2-1 W
Villarrobledo	0-0 D	0-4 L
Toledo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Huracan Balazote	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Illescas

LWDLWDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
13/09	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
03/05	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Albacete B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	3	12	W
19/04	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
11/04	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	1-1	6	9	D
05/04	CD Cazalegas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
28/03	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

Villarrubia CF

LWWDDLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-3	0-4	9	6	L
12/09	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
25/04	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	2-2	2-2	5	5	D
19/04	Azuqueca Spain Tercera Group 18	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
11/04	CD Sonseca Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
02/04	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	2-1	2	9	W
28/03	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Illescas vs Villarrubia CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Illescas win (48%). Probabilities: Illescas 48%, draw 31%, Villarrubia CF 21%.

How many goals are expected in Illescas vs Villarrubia CF?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Illescas 1.24 · Villarrubia CF 0.72), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Illescas vs Villarrubia CF?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.