Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 19/09, 19:00

Prediction: Villarrubia CF vs Villarrobledo

Team pages: Villarrubia CF

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.77Total

Villarrubia CF1.07

Villarrobledo0.7

1X2

44% 32% 24%

Villarrubia CF Draw Villarrobledo

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Villarrubia CF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDLWDD

Villarrobledo 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLDDDD

Head-to-head

Villarrubia CF 3–3 Villarrobledo (6 last)

Villarrobledo1-0Villarrubia CF
Villarrubia CF2-1Villarrobledo
Villarrubia CF2-0Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo2-0Villarrubia CF
Villarrubia CF1-0Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo1-0Villarrubia CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villarrubia CF 1486 · Villarrobledo 1536

	Villarrubia CF	Draw	Villarrobledo
Our model	43%	35%	22%
Market	45%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 1.77 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villarrobledo (rating 1486 vs 1536).
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Villarrubia CF	Villarrobledo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/67/17%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 3.2	2.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.17 ★
X	3.25 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	4.20 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:51 +15’	1.80	3.25	4.20
22:46 +14’	2.00▲	3.10▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +229’	2.16	2.81	3.49
18:34 +7’	2.17▲	2.85▲	3.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Villarrubia CF 3–0–3 Villarrobledo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrobledo	1-0	Villarrubia CF
04/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	2-1 HT 1-0	Villarrobledo
11/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	2-0 HT 0-0	Villarrobledo
12/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrobledo	2-0 HT 1-0	Villarrubia CF
27/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	1-0 HT 1-0	Villarrobledo
17/12/23 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrobledo	1-0	Villarrubia CF

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Marchamalo	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	CD Manchego CR	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	CD Torrijos	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
4	Toledo	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
5	CD Noblejas	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Illescas	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
7	Almansa	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
8	CD Villacanas	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
9	CD Villa	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
10	AD San Clemente	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
10	Villarrubia CF	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
12	Villarrobledo	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	Socuéllamos	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
14	CD Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
15	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
15	CD Tarancon	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
17	La Solana	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
18	Huracan Balazote	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villarrubia CF	Villarrobledo
Toledo	1-1 D	0-0 D
CD Sonseca	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villarrubia CF

LLWWDDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
25/04	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	2-2	2-2	5	5	D
19/04	Azuqueca Spain Tercera Group 18	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
11/04	CD Sonseca Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
02/04	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	2-1	2	9	W
28/03	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
21/03	Calvo Sotelo Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-2	3	6	L

Villarrobledo

WDWDWLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
06/09	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
09/05	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/04	CD Sonseca Spain Tercera Group 18	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
12/04	Albacete B Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
02/04	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
29/03	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/03	CD Cazalegas Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	2-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villarrubia CF vs Villarrobledo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Villarrubia CF win (44%). Probabilities: Villarrubia CF 44%, draw 32%, Villarrobledo 24%.

How many goals are expected in Villarrubia CF vs Villarrobledo?

The model expects 1.77 goals (Villarrubia CF 1.07 · Villarrobledo 0.7), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Villarrubia CF vs Villarrobledo?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.