Football · China Division 2 · 09/08, 11:30

Prediction: Changchun Xidu vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Team pages: Changchun Xidu · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.83Total

Changchun Xidu0.65

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai1.18

1X2

20% 31% 49%

Changchun Xidu Draw Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Xidu 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDDWLDDL

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Changchun Xidu 1–1–1 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (3 last)

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai3-0Changchun Xidu
Changchun Xidu2-0Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai0-0Changchun Xidu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Xidu 1458 · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1593

	Changchun Xidu	Draw	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Our model	19%	33%	48%
Market	21%	29%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 1.83 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (rating 1458 vs 1593).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Xidu	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.7	1.4 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.10

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.93 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +6’	4.20	3.10	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +5’	4.05	2.92	1.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Xidu 1–1–1 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 China Division 2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	3-0 HT 0-0	Changchun Xidu
28/06/25 China Division 2	Changchun Xidu	2-0 HT 1-0	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
13/04/25 China Division 2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-0 HT 0-0	Changchun Xidu

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	19	11	4	4	33	15	37
2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	19	11	4	4	28	17	37
3	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	19	11	3	5	27	15	36
4	Dalian Kewei	19	8	9	2	18	10	33
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	19	8	5	6	23	20	29
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	19	5	9	5	17	18	24
7	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	19	3	12	4	10	14	21
8	Nantong Haimen Codion	19	4	9	6	20	20	21
9	Qingdao Red Lions	19	4	9	6	20	17	21
10	Changchun Xidu	19	2	10	7	10	23	16
11	Shanghai Segenda	19	2	8	9	19	33	14
12	Beijing Institute	19	1	6	12	13	36	9

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changchun Xidu	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	0-1 L	2-1 W
Shanghai Segenda	1-1 D	2-0 W
Shandong Taishan Reserves	1-1 D	0-1 L
Shanghai Port Reserves	0-2 L	1-0 W
Tai'an Tiankuang	1-0 W	3-2 W
Nantong Haimen Codion	0-0 D	2-0 W
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	0-0 D	0-0 D
Dalian Kewei	0-3 L	2-0 W
Beijing Institute	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 3 L	7 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Changchun Xidu

DDLDDWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
25/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
18/07	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
05/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
27/06	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
23/06	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
13/06	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
07/06	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
27/05	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	0-0	10	2	D

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

DDWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
26/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
19/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-1	1	2	W
08/07	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
05/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
28/06	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/06	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	2-0	3-2	5	4	W
19/06	Qingdao West Coast China FA Cup	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
13/06	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Xidu vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shanxi Chongde Ronghai win (49%). Probabilities: Changchun Xidu 20%, draw 31%, Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 49%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Xidu vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

The model expects 1.83 goals (Changchun Xidu 0.65 · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1.18), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Xidu vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.