Football · China Division 2 · 16/08, 13:30

Prediction: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

Team pages: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic1.85

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves0.66

1X2

66% 22% 12%

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic Draw Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWWWWL

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDDLWW

Head-to-head

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 2–1–0 Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves (3 last)

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves1-2Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic1-1Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves1-2Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1549 · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 1462

	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	Draw	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
Our model	65%	24%	12%
Market	66%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic (rating 1549 vs 1462).
H2H favours Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5	1.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.33

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:28 +5’	1.36	4.33	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 2–1–0 Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/05/26 China Division 2	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	1-2 HT 0-0	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
20/07/25 China Division 2	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	1-1 HT 1-1	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
10/05/25 China Division 2	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	1-2 HT 0-1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	20	13	1	6	32	17	40
2	Shenzhen 2028	20	10	6	4	36	23	36
3	Jiangxi Lushan	20	9	5	6	24	17	32
4	Hubei Istar	20	8	7	5	28	22	31
5	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	20	6	10	4	23	28	28
6	Ganzhou Ruishi	20	6	8	6	18	25	26
7	Xiamen Feilu	20	6	8	6	27	26	26
8	Guangdong Mingtu	20	4	11	5	19	19	23
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	20	5	6	9	19	27	21
10	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	20	5	6	9	18	23	21
11	Wenzhou FC	20	3	9	8	12	22	18
12	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	20	3	7	10	16	23	16

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	3-4 L	0-0 D
Wenzhou FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
Shenzhen 2028	1-0 W	0-1 L
Ganzhou Ruishi	3-0 W	1-1 D
Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	1-0 W	0-1 L
Jiangxi Lushan	1-2 L	0-1 L
Hubei Istar	0-2 L	3-2 W
Guangdong Mingtu	0-0 D	0-2 L
Xiamen Feilu	1-0 W	5-1 W
Guangzhou Dandelion	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

WWDLLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-2	3-4	4	7	L
05/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-0	2-0	10	7	W
01/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	3-0	8	1	W
19/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
05/07	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
27/06	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-2	0-2	6	8	L
23/06	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/06	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
14/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	1	W

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

LLDLLDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	3-2	1	4	W
02/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	2-1	5-1	5	0	W
27/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
19/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
04/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
28/06	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
24/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
20/06	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
13/06	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-1	0-1	10	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic win (66%). Probabilities: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 66%, draw 22%, Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 12%.

How many goals are expected in Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1.85 · Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves 0.66), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.