Football · China Division 2 · 16/08, 13:30
Prediction: Wenzhou FC vs Shenzhen 2028
Team pages: Wenzhou FC · Shenzhen 2028
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
Wenzhou FC0.87
Shenzhen 20281.43
1X2
Wenzhou FC
Draw
Shenzhen 2028
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Wenzhou FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Shenzhen 2028
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wenzhou FC
1–2
Shenzhen 2028
(3 last)
- Shenzhen 20284-0Wenzhou FC
- Wenzhou FC1-2Shenzhen 2028
- Shenzhen 20280-1Wenzhou FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wenzhou FC 1476 · Shenzhen 2028 1571
| Wenzhou FC | Draw | Shenzhen 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 29% | 49% |
| Market | 22% | 28% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shenzhen 2028 (rating 1476 vs 1571).
- H2H favours Shenzhen 2028: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wenzhou FC | Shenzhen 2028 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.8 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wenzhou FC 1–0–2 Shenzhen 2028
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/26 China Division 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Wenzhou FC |
| 13/06/25 China Division 2 | Wenzhou FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Shenzhen 2028 |
| 04/04/25 China Division 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Wenzhou FC |
Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 20 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 17 | 40 |
| 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 23 | 36 |
| 3 | Jiangxi Lushan | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 17 | 32 |
| 4 | Hubei Istar | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 28 | 28 |
| 6 | Ganzhou Ruishi | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 26 |
| 7 | Xiamen Feilu | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 26 | 26 |
| 8 | Guangdong Mingtu | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 9 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 27 | 21 |
| 10 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 23 | 21 |
| 11 | Wenzhou FC | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 22 | 18 |
| 12 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 23 | 16 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wenzhou FC | Shenzhen 2028 |
|---|---|---|
| Guangdong Mingtu | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Jiangxi Lushan | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Guangzhou Dandelion | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Hubei Istar | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Hangzhou Linping Wuyue | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Ganzhou Ruishi | 0-1 L | 6-0 W |
| Wuhan Three Towns Reserves | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Xiamen Feilu | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 4 D 3 L | 6 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Shenzhen 2028 (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wenzhou FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 05/08 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 16 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 24/06 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Shenzhen 2028
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
2-0 | 6-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 05/07 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 28/06 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Hubei Istar China Division 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wenzhou FC vs Shenzhen 2028?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Shenzhen 2028 win (50%). Probabilities: Wenzhou FC 22%, draw 28%, Shenzhen 2028 50%.
How many goals are expected in Wenzhou FC vs Shenzhen 2028?
The model expects 2.3 goals (Wenzhou FC 0.87 · Shenzhen 2028 1.43), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Wenzhou FC vs Shenzhen 2028?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.