Football · Georgia First League · 08/08, 19:00

Prediction: Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Samtredia

Team pages: Aragvi Dusheti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Aragvi Dusheti1.5

FC Samtredia1.27

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Aragvi Dusheti Draw FC Samtredia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Aragvi Dusheti 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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FC Samtredia 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Aragvi Dusheti 1–1–3 FC Samtredia (5 last)

FC Samtredia2-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti2-1FC Samtredia
Aragvi Dusheti0-2FC Samtredia
FC Samtredia2-2Aragvi Dusheti
FC Samtredia5-3Aragvi Dusheti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aragvi Dusheti 1534 · FC Samtredia 1458

	Aragvi Dusheti	Draw	FC Samtredia
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aragvi Dusheti (rating 1534 vs 1458).
H2H favours FC Samtredia: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aragvi Dusheti	FC Samtredia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	1.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:05 +1’	2.05	3.40	3.00
12:55 +1’	2.15▲	3.40	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aragvi Dusheti 1–1–3 FC Samtredia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Georgia First League	FC Samtredia	2-0 HT 2-0	Aragvi Dusheti
07/03/26 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Samtredia
21/07/24 Georgia Cup	Aragvi Dusheti	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Samtredia
14/02/24 Club Friendly List	FC Samtredia	2-2 HT 1-0	Aragvi Dusheti
18/01/20 Europe Friendlies	FC Samtredia	5-3 HT 2-2	Aragvi Dusheti

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	19	11	6	2	24	12	39
2	FC Telavi	19	10	5	4	22	15	35
3	Merani Martvili	19	8	6	5	23	20	30
4	SFC Shturmi	19	6	9	4	17	14	27
5	Aragvi Dusheti	19	7	4	8	18	23	25
6	FC Sioni Bolnisi	19	6	7	6	25	20	25
7	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	19	6	6	7	23	26	24
8	Kolkheti Poti	19	4	6	9	24	24	18
9	FC Gori	19	3	7	9	13	24	16
10	FC Samtredia	19	4	4	11	25	36	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aragvi Dusheti	FC Samtredia
Kolkheti Poti	0-0 D	2-2 D
FC Telavi	0-1 L	0-3 L
FC Sioni Bolnisi	3-2 W	2-3 L
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	1-1 D	1-1 D
Merani Martvili	1-1 D	1-2 L
SFC Shturmi	0-2 L	2-1 W
FC Gori	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Aragvi Dusheti (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aragvi Dusheti

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Guria Lanchkhuti Georgia Cup	0-1	2-1	0	7	W
25/07	Kolkheti Poti Georgia Cup	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
25/06	FC Zooveti Tbilisi Georgia Cup	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
22/06	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
17/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	2-2	3-2	1	6	W
13/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
29/05	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
24/05	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
20/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
16/05	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	1	8	W

FC Samtredia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	SFC Shturmi Georgia Cup	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
22/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
17/06	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
13/06	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
30/05	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-2	2-3	6	8	L
24/05	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-2	0-3	10	5	L
20/05	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
16/05	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
10/05	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
06/05	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-0	2-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Samtredia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aragvi Dusheti win (42%). Probabilities: Aragvi Dusheti 42%, draw 27%, FC Samtredia 31%.

How many goals are expected in Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Samtredia?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Aragvi Dusheti 1.5 · FC Samtredia 1.27), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Samtredia?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.