Football · Georgia First League · 15/08, 15:00

Prediction: FC Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti

Team pages: FC Gareji · Aragvi Dusheti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

FC Gareji1.53

Aragvi Dusheti0.77

1X2

55% 27% 18%

FC Gareji Draw Aragvi Dusheti

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gareji 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDLWLD

Aragvi Dusheti 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLWDWL

Head-to-head

FC Gareji 5–1 Aragvi Dusheti (6 last)

Aragvi Dusheti0-1FC Gareji
FC Gareji1-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti1-3FC Gareji
FC Gareji2-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti3-5FC Gareji
FC Gareji0-1Aragvi Dusheti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gareji 1534 · Aragvi Dusheti 1495

	FC Gareji	Draw	Aragvi Dusheti
Our model	54%	28%	18%
Market	56%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Gareji: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gareji	Aragvi Dusheti
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	1.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.61▲	Bet365 1.61
X	3.70 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	5.50 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:32 +56’	1.50	3.70	5.50
01:15 +7’	1.61▲	3.50▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gareji 5–0–1 Aragvi Dusheti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Gareji
11/03/26 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	1-0 HT 1-0	Aragvi Dusheti
05/10/24 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	1-3 HT 1-0	FC Gareji
10/08/24 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	2-0 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
01/05/24 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	3-5 HT 1-2	FC Gareji
07/03/24 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	0-1 HT 0-1	Aragvi Dusheti

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	20	11	7	2	24	12	40
2	FC Telavi	20	10	6	4	22	15	36
3	SFC Shturmi	20	7	9	4	19	15	30
4	Merani Martvili	20	8	6	6	24	22	30
5	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	20	7	6	7	25	27	27
6	Aragvi Dusheti	20	7	4	9	20	27	25
7	FC Sioni Bolnisi	20	6	7	7	26	24	25
8	FC Gori	20	4	7	9	17	25	19
9	FC Samtredia	20	5	4	11	29	38	19
10	Kolkheti Poti	20	4	6	10	25	26	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gareji	Aragvi Dusheti
FC Telavi	0-0 D	0-1 L
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	1-2 L	1-1 D
SFC Shturmi	0-0 D	0-2 L
FC Samtredia	3-2 W	2-4 L
FC Sioni Bolnisi	1-1 D	3-2 W
Merani Martvili	1-0 W	1-1 D
Kolkheti Poti	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Gareji (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Gareji

DWDWWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
02/08	FC Gagra Georgia Cup	1-3	1-4	3	2	L
25/07	FC Basa Georgia Cup	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
22/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
17/06	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
13/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
30/05	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	2-0	3-2	4	8	W
24/05	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
20/05	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
16/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D

Aragvi Dusheti

WLDDWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
02/08	Guria Lanchkhuti Georgia Cup	0-1	2-1	0	7	W
25/07	Kolkheti Poti Georgia Cup	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
25/06	FC Zooveti Tbilisi Georgia Cup	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
22/06	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
17/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	2-2	3-2	1	6	W
13/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
29/05	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
24/05	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
20/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Gareji win (55%). Probabilities: FC Gareji 55%, draw 27%, Aragvi Dusheti 18%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti?

The model expects 2.29 goals (FC Gareji 1.53 · Aragvi Dusheti 0.77), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.