Football · Georgia First League · 08/08, 18:00
Prediction: SFC Shturmi vs Merani Martvili
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.86Total
SFC Shturmi1.15
Merani Martvili0.7
1X2
SFC Shturmi
Draw
Merani Martvili
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
SFC Shturmi
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Merani Martvili
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SFC Shturmi
1–2–1
Merani Martvili
(4 last)
- Merani Martvili0-0SFC Shturmi
- SFC Shturmi0-0Merani Martvili
- Merani Martvili0-1SFC Shturmi
- SFC Shturmi0-1Merani Martvili
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SFC Shturmi 1493 · Merani Martvili 1475
| SFC Shturmi | Draw | Merani Martvili | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 34% | 21% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SFC Shturmi | Merani Martvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/44/44% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.6 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SFC Shturmi 1–2–1 Merani Martvili
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 Georgia First League | Merani Martvili | 0-0 HT 0-0 | SFC Shturmi |
| 07/03/26 Georgia First League | SFC Shturmi | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Merani Martvili |
| 16/12/24 Georgia Play-Offs | Merani Martvili | 0-1 HT 0-1 | SFC Shturmi |
| 12/12/24 Georgia Play-Offs | SFC Shturmi | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Merani Martvili |
Standings · Georgia First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Gareji | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 39 |
| 2 | FC Telavi | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Merani Martvili | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 30 |
| 4 | SFC Shturmi | 19 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 27 |
| 5 | Aragvi Dusheti | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 25 |
| 6 | FC Sioni Bolnisi | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 25 |
| 7 | Odishi 1919 Zugdidi | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 24 |
| 8 | Kolkheti Poti | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 24 | 18 |
| 9 | FC Gori | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 16 |
| 10 | FC Samtredia | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 36 | 16 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SFC Shturmi | Merani Martvili |
|---|---|---|
| FC Samtredia | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Kolkheti Poti | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| FC Gareji | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| FC Telavi | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Odishi 1919 Zugdidi | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Aragvi Dusheti | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Gori | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| FC Sioni Bolnisi | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SFC Shturmi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | FC Samtredia Georgia Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | West Georgia Georgia Cup |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/06 | Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 17/06 | FC Gareji Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 13/06 | FC Telavi Georgia First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | FC Gori Georgia First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Samtredia Georgia First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Merani Martvili
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/06 | FC Gori Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 17/06 | FC Samtredia Georgia First League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 29/05 | Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | FC Gareji Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | FC Telavi Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/05 | SFC Shturmi Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SFC Shturmi vs Merani Martvili?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SFC Shturmi win (47%). Probabilities: SFC Shturmi 47%, draw 30%, Merani Martvili 23%.
How many goals are expected in SFC Shturmi vs Merani Martvili?
The model expects 1.86 goals (SFC Shturmi 1.15 · Merani Martvili 0.7), with a 61% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in SFC Shturmi vs Merani Martvili?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.