Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 28/08, 00:30

Prediction: Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira

Team pages: Independiente Petrolero · Guabira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Independiente Petrolero1.73

Guabira1.33

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Independiente Petrolero Draw Guabira

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Petrolero 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWDWWL

Guabira 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDWWWD

Head-to-head

Independiente Petrolero 1–3–2 Guabira (6 last)

Guabira2-2Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero0-0Guabira
Independiente Petrolero3-1Guabira
Guabira3-1Independiente Petrolero
Guabira1-1Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero0-1Guabira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Petrolero 1502 · Guabira 1555

	Independiente Petrolero	Draw	Guabira
Our model	46%	26%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guabira (rating 1502 vs 1555).
H2H favours Guabira: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Petrolero	Guabira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.7	5 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:10 +10’	2.00	3.70	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Petrolero 1–3–2 Guabira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Guabira	2-2 HT 1-1	Independiente Petrolero
03/03/26 Copa Sudamericana	Independiente Petrolero	0-0 HT 0-0	Guabira
03/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	3-1 HT 1-1	Guabira
14/08/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Guabira	3-1 HT 1-1	Independiente Petrolero
01/07/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Guabira	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Petrolero
21/05/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Independiente Petrolero	0-1 HT 0-0	Guabira

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	16	10	5	1	33	10	35
2	Bolivar	16	10	3	3	40	18	33
3	The Strongest	16	8	6	2	26	20	30
4	Oriente Petrolero	17	8	3	6	32	23	27
5	Real Potosi	16	6	7	3	22	11	25
6	Guabira	16	7	4	5	27	28	25
7	Club Aurora	16	5	8	3	23	22	23
8	Blooming	16	5	7	4	21	17	22
9	Independiente Petrolero	16	6	4	6	22	24	22
10	Nacional Potosi	17	6	3	8	25	23	21
11	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	16	5	2	9	26	33	17
12	Real Oruro	16	5	2	9	29	42	17
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	16	5	2	9	18	32	17
14	GV San Jose	17	2	8	7	19	27	14
15	Universitario De Vinto	17	4	2	11	22	35	14
16	Real Tomayapo	16	3	4	9	12	32	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Petrolero	Guabira
Nacional Potosi	0-3 L	2-1 W
The Strongest	2-1 W	3-1 W
Real Oruro	3-0 W	4-1 W
Oriente Petrolero	1-2 L	2-2 D
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-3 L	1-0 W
Real Tomayapo	1-2 L	3-0 W
Blooming	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Guabira (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Petrolero

WLLLLWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
17/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
08/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	1	7	W
05/08	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
01/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	3-0	2	6	W
26/07	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
16/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	9	L
13/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
14/05	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	3-1	5	4	W

Guabira

DWWLWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
15/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
07/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	15	8	W
31/07	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
25/07	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	3-1	4-1	4	5	W
18/07	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
29/05	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
18/05	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	5	10	W
15/05	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	5	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Petrolero win (46%). Probabilities: Independiente Petrolero 46%, draw 25%, Guabira 29%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Independiente Petrolero 1.73 · Guabira 1.33), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.